Free: How I'd play Del Mar on Sunday, Aug. 23
DEL MAR, Calif. – Perhaps there are horseplayers able to grind out a profit based on volume of winners. If so, they will like the Sunday card at Del Mar.
It’s a program that includes a handful of “can’t miss” favorites.
How can NEWFOUND GOLD lose race 1? He destroyed $12,500 claiming sprinters last time by more than seven lengths and returns Sunday at the same level. Newfound Gold is listed at 8-5 and probably will be odds-on. He is the first slam dunk.
SUPER MAJESTY is favored in race 3, a one-mile N2X for fillies and mares. She looks and is bred like a distance filly. Her first two starts were sprints she won by more than six and more than 15. Super Majesty is 6-5, headed to odds-on. Second slam dunk.
FINEST CITY looks like a cinch in race 7. She earned pace and speed figures in her runner-up debut that would have won most special-weights. Finest City is 3-1. Doubt her odds will be that high. Also doubt she will lose. That’s the third cinch.
Finally, GLORYZAPPER is solid in race 9, an N1X sprint for fillies and mares. Gloryzapper defeated Finest City in her debut, finishing that six-furlong race like a filly that wants more ground. She goes an additional furlong Sunday against winners at 5-2.
There you have it – four can’t-miss, slam-dunk, cinch winners Sunday at Del Mar. They are guaranteed winners. And look – there goes a unicorn and also a mermaid!
The truth is there is no such thing as a sure thing. The favorites “should” win races 1, 3, 7, and 9, but none “have to” win.
Race 1 will be a pass for this handicapper. Go ahead and let Newfound Gold win at a short price. Chalk one up for “volume bettors.”
Race 3 is a different story. Although the 2-for-2 Super Majesty is formidable, it’s her first try around two turns. She flies in the face of an age-old betting principle – never take a short price on a horse trying something new. Super Majesty is trying something new.
SKY MEGA, however, is proven around two turns and proven at the class level. She battled on a strong pace last time and finished clear of third. She has three routes under her belt, a race over the track, and at 5-2 her odds, represents value in a six-horse field.
So in race 3, this handicapper will bet against the “probable winner” Super Majesty and key the second-most-probable winner Sky Mega.
As for the good things later on the card, the 3-1 listed price on Finest City in race 7 is not bad. Neither is the 5-2 price on Gloryzapper in race 9.
But if those two are bet down as expected, then Sunday will be a long day of “pass races” for this handicapper.
Perhaps there are successful bettors who can grind it out by backing large numbers of winners. If so, they could have a very good day Sunday.