Free: How I'd play Del Mar on Sunday, Aug. 2
DEL MAR, Calif. – Occasionally, a racing card includes vulnerable or undervalued favorites that a bettor is virtually required to wager against.
And then there are cards such as Sunday at Del Mar with an odds-on favorite halfway through and a rock-solid favorite near the end of the card. Both appear formidable.
GIMME DA LUTE in race 5 and ARTISTIC CHARM in race 8 both “should” win. The question is: Are the program odds high enough to warrant the risk? At 4-5 and 5-2, respectively, the answer probably is no.
Sunday is the type of card to fool around with just for the sake of action, while recognizing a racetrack truth. That is: Betting on favorites will allow one to cash frequently, but it’s just about impossible to grind out long-term profit betting the same horses as everyone else.
Therefore, Sunday is just for the fun of it – the $200,000 Real Good Deal Stakes with an odds-on standout and a N1X turf allowance with an improving favorite.
Race 5 favorite Gimme Da Lute is a two-time graded winner dropping to a stakes for Cal-breds. He is the class of the field, the high-figure horse, and he is quick enough to sprint. It will be a surprise if he gets beat. It also will be a surprise if he starts as high as his morning line.
Gimme Da Lute is 4-5 and going down from there. He is a slam-dunk single, although this summer, there is no such thing. Through Friday, stakes favorites were 1 for 11.
Bettors might try an exacta. SMACK TALK is the longest shot in the small field. On figures, he is not fast enough. However, Smack Talk figures for a good trip positioned behind the frontrunner RICHARD’S BOY.
When that one tires, Smack Talk will get first run.
It’s a one-way exacta – Gimme Da Lute over Smalk Talk.
The favorite’s odds are slightly higher in race 8. Artistic Charm, 5-2, has improved each subsequent U.S. start. She moves up a notch after a sharp N1X win that was validated when the third-place finisher Chaulk O Lattey returned to win.
I plan to fiddle around in the late double, keying Artistic Charm to three contenders in race 9. Those are last-out maiden winner STENOA, back-on-fast WITH THE BREEZE, and the 1-for-21 program favorite FLAT GONE.
Sunday is a day not to get hurt. A small exacta in race 5 and a small daily double play in races 8 and 9 are the extent of this handicapper’s action. Just for the sake of it.