Free: How I'd play Del Mar on Sunday, Aug. 14

DEL MAR, Calif. – The bottom of the barrel is no place to look for overlays in Southern California. The high level of predictability in $20,000 maiden-claiming races produces low win payoffs, and the 2016 Del Mar summer meet is not an exception.

The median payoff in maiden-$20Ks is only $8 despite average field size of 9.1 per race (average field size across all categories is a troubling 8.0). Maiden-$20K favorites this summer are 6 for 14; the highest win payoff is just $13.40.

The idea that bigger fields produce higher payoffs makes theoretical sense, but the reality is that higher payoffs require two factors – big fields AND competitive fields. Generally speaking, maiden-$20Ks are less competitive. Many at the level have minimal ability.

Thankfully, there are exceptions. An example is the ninth race Sunday, a six-furlong maiden-$20K in which the logical contenders are dubious.

Resistanceisfutile (8) is the program favorite based on two recent in-the-money finishes. However, Resistanceisfutile is not quick. He rallies from behind. While maiden-claiming sprinters occasionally win from off the pace, they do so only with a significant edge in ability. Six starts into his career, Resistanceisfutile has run only one “fast” race.

If he reproduces his last-out 66 Beyer Speed Figure, Resistanceisfutile can win. That would make it 7 for 15 for maiden-$20K favorites. But come-from-behind maidens with only one good figure, such as Resistanceisfutile, are easy to bet against.

Legitimate (3), the second choice in the program, is an 11-start maiden who finished a half-length behind Resistanceisfutile while earning a 64 Beyer, his highest this year. Perhaps the race was phony. Two of the top three finishers earned career-best figures; Legitimate earned his best figure of the season. That seems curious.

Another knock on Legitimate is pace. He pressed the pace in his last two starts, both races in which the half-mile split was slow (45.62 seconds in both). Despite the tepid pace, Legitimate was unable to finish the job. He finished second and third.

The point is that neither favorite in this maiden-$20K is reliable.

A longshot alternative is listed at 12-1. He is making his second start of the meet and is the most attractive overlay on the card.

Olimpio’s Scat Cat (10) cannot be described as quick. In four starts at Turf Paradise, he was usually positioned at the back of the field. But in his first start at Del Mar last month, Olimpio’s Scat Cat pressed the pace between horses and then dropped back while passively ridden. He split the field, finishing sixth of 11.

At first glance, it was not a great comeback. But the gelding showed speed for the first time in his career. Unexpected speed can signal improved form. Olimpio’s Scat Cat has a history of improving with racing. He’s worked twice since, both times at Del Mar.

Trainer Val Brinkerhoff is 3 for 24 in Del Mar summer meets since 2011 – If You Dream ($15.80) won his debut in 2015, Dallon’s Gold ($30.80) won a claiming race in 2014, and Raetodandty ($23) won a turf-sprint stakes in 2011. Three wins, three prices.

Olimpio’s Scat Cat might not be good enough. And the bottom of the barrel usually is no place to look for overlays in Southern California. But the ninth race on Sunday might be an exception – Olimpio’s Scat Cat as the overlay of the day at 12-1 in the program.