Free: How I'd play Del Mar on Saturday, Nov. 14
DEL MAR, Calif. – Maybe, just maybe, the Saturday card at Del Mar includes one logical horse on whom to make a reasonable gamble.
If so, it is not in race 1. HOME SCHOOL is the top choice and program favorite. But he is as phony as the day is long. The gelding has made 19 starts in the U.S. His only U.S. win was a slow-paced N1X.
Race 2 is a trap. BIG MOVE is the speed. The problem is that she is favored in the N1X dirt sprint based on form established on turf. Her fast works on dirt prove only that she works fast on dirt. No guarantee she will run fast on dirt in the afternoon in an actual race.
Race 3 is a maiden-$20K sprint, possibly the most predictable class on the circuit. TAKE IT EASYPLEASE won three starts back but was disqualified. He followed with two runner-up finishes. He does enter with a betting angle recently overheard – “Ry Eikleberry off.”
A N1X turf sprint for fillies and mares is race 4. Last-out maiden winner LILY POD is the one to catch. It’s another surface predicament. Although speed is good in turf sprints at Del Mar, Lily Pod has never raced on turf. It’s a big question and a short price at 2-1.
Southern California claiming races are a stream of N2Ls and N3Ls such as race 5. The favorite is MARKET NOTES, whose closing style does not fit the track profile – 16 of 17 races at six furlongs through Thursday were won by a front-runner or presser. NO EZ MONEY and SWISS CHEESE have speed. Both are 5-1, and both have moderate appeal.
YA YA GIRL has lost five straight as the favorite. Here she is again, favored in race 6, a maiden-claiming race on turf. Ya Ya Girl should get a good trip. She always does. Someone is likely to beat her. Someone always does. It’s a pass race.
BRIMSTONED is solid in race 7, a N1X route. He is 3 for 3 since being gelded; two summer starts at Del Mar were blowout wins. At 5-2, he would be an okay bet. Can a bettor make consistent profits backing favorites? It is tough to do.
TOEWS ON ICE is favored in race 8, the Bob Hope Stakes. It is his fifth start. The last 12 winners of this 2-year-old stakes were making just their second or third start. Toews On Ice should win. But everyone knows preordained victory is only for horses named American Pharoah.
Race 9, finally, includes a potential wager. DREFONG is a second-start maiden whose debut was super. He broke slowly from the rail, rushed, chased, and tired. He should improve and give cold sire Gio Ponti a rare win. Gio Ponti’s first 38 runners made 75 starts, winning all of three races.
Drefong can make it four on Saturday at Del Mar. At program odds of 7-2, Drefong might be the one logical horse on whom to make a reasonable gamble.