Free: How I'd play Del Mar on Saturday, July 16

DEL MAR, Calif. – A win wager on an improving turf colt in race 7, a win wager on a 2-year-old first-time starter in race 8, and a pick three that ends in race 9 will form the basis of this handicapper’s plan of attack Saturday at Del Mar.

Race 7

It’s the Ice is a reasonable favorite in race 7, a first-level turf allowance for 3-year-olds. No knocks on the gelding, who kept good company last winter at Santa Anita. He could be tough to catch in his first start back.

However, an overlay is directly to his outside. All the Marbles won a maiden race last out that looks ordinary on paper. He earned a mere 75 Beyer Speed Figure, and his seven rivals all lost next time out, including the second- and third-place finishers, who subsequently finished off the board.

But a video of the All the Marbles win (Santa Anita, May 13, race 3) paints a different picture. All the Marbles was in trouble early, rank and steadied, made a premature move on the backstretch, engaged for the lead, put away his pace rivals, and won by a nose.

All the Marbles won a race that by all rights he should have lost. It was only his second start and his first route. A half-brother to Papa Clem, All the Marbles ran much better than the line shows. Is he good enough to beat It’s the Ice? Perhaps he is not.

However, at 6-1 in the program, with much potential and still figuring out the game, All the Marbles is worth a straight bet at 5-1 (minimum), even if he is the second-likeliest winner.

Race 8

First-crop sire Gemologist has yet to sire a debut winner. As of Friday, he had seven runners. None won first out. Morganite could be his first.

Trainer John Sadler said his 2-year-olds this year are “zippier” than last year. Morganite has worked well; she sold for $360,000 at a 2-year-olds sale in March. She is precocious.

Morganite is listed at 9-2 and should come out firing. She is a straight bet at 4-1 (minimum). As for program favorite Noted and Quoted, she is well regarded by trainer Bob Baffert. Her 1:02.20 gate work July 8 reportedly was better than the final time.

Race 9

Finest City could get loose at 7-2 in the Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon Stakes. Nancy From Nairobi shortens in distance as the 3-1 program favorite; the comebacker Queen of The Sand might be the best finisher. She is eligible also for an allowance race Wednesday. Those three will be included in the pick three.

Wagers

Race 7: All the Marbles, win bet at 5-1 or higher
Race 8: Morganite, win bet at 4-1 or higher

Races 7-9, pick 3 ($1 wager = $12 total)
Race 7: It’s the Ice (2) and All the Marbles (3)
Race 8: Noted and Quoted (3) and Morganite (5)
Race 9: Nancy From Nairobi (2), Finest City (6), and Queen of The Sand (7)