Free: How I'd play Del Mar for Saturday, Dec. 3

Step one – find the likely winner. Step two – find the likely overlay.

The task is straightforward in a pair of graded stakes Saturday at Del Mar – the Grade 2 Bayakoa Handicap (race 6) for fillies and mares, and the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby (race 7) for 3-year-olds on grass.

Vale Dori is likely to win the Bayakoa, a 1 1/16-mile dirt race in which she is favored at 7-5. Vale Dori enters with superior Beyer Figures and sharp recent form. She is the only two-turn graded-stakes-caliber filly in the field.

Can’t knock the chalk. But the Bayakoa field also includes a comeback filly who runs well fresh, routinely outruns her odds, and benefits from a pace scenario that might flatter her closing style.

Autumn Flower has never started in a graded stakes, which hardly matters in a field absent established two-turn graded form. Autumn Flower is a second-level allowance winner who has not started since October. No problem.

Autumn Flower won her most recent start following a two-month layoff, she won a first-level allowance in June following a layoff of more than four months, and her maiden win a year ago was her first start in two months.

In all three wins, Autumn Flower was a surprise – $17.40 last out, $78.20 two back, and $23.40 in her maiden win. She wins races she is not expected to. Since losing the first seven starts of her career, Autumn Flower has won 3 of 5. She is a late developer.

As for the pace factor, Autumn Flower faces a challenge. Main-track routes this fall have been won mostly by front-runners and pressers. Surprisingly, the Bayakoa is the first 1 1/16-mile dirt race of the meet.

The field has plenty of pace. Gloryzapper is a front-runner, Vale Dori is a pace-presser, Wild at Heart is a pace-pressing sprinter stretching out, and Desert Madam is all speed all the time. The fractions should be legitimate. This is necessary, because Autumn Flower is a closer.

Autumn Flower might not be good enough. She might not overcome the track profile. But at 8-1, she certainly is good enough to hit the board.

It’s a $20 play:

$5 win bet Autumn Flower

$5 exacta Autumn Flower over Vale Dori

$10 exacta Vale Dori over Autumn Flower

The Hollywood Derby is deep – 12 were entered. Favorite Camelot Kitten will open at 7-2. No knocks on Camelot Kitten, a four-time graded winner who has won five of his six photo finishes. A shipper from New York, Camelot Kitten is trained by Chad Brown, same as Beach Patrol, second choice on the morning line.

But the Hollywood Derby field also includes a colt who is much better now than in spring, when he was dusted by the favorite. He is a deep closer over a turf course that is kind to his style, he scored a solid win last out, and is making only the third start of his comeback.

Frank Conversation was a footnote in winter and spring, when his minor achievements were stakes wins on synthetic footing at Golden Gate Fields. When he faced tougher company, he finished nowhere in Dubai, and 21 lengths behind Camelot Kitten in May.

That was then, this is now.

Frank Conversation set a fast pace and faded in his Oct. 8 comeback against older. For his second start back, he removed blinkers, dropped to face 3-year-olds, and rallied from behind a hot pace to win a Grade 2 going away. In a race otherwise dominated by speed, Frank Conversation rallied wide and stormed to a 36-1 upset.

That was tough to do over a turf course at Santa Anita that favored forwardly placed runners. And though deep closer Frank Conversation benefitted from the 45.88-second half-mile, it must be noted the one-two pacesetters finished second and third.

Frank Conversation faces tougher company Saturday. He might not be good enough. But the Del Mar turf favors his closing style, and at 8-1 he is worth betting to make it back-to-back upsets.

It’s a $20 play:

$10 win bet Frank Conversation

$2 exacta Frank Conversation over Camelot Kitten and Beach Patrol

$3 exacta Camelot Kitten and Beach Patrol over Frank Conversation