Free: How I'd play Del Mar for Monday, Sept. 7

Monday is closing day of the Del Mar summer meet. Everyone knows what that means – almost time for Los Alamitos!

The Los Alamitos fall meet begins Thursday for a 10-day season leading to Santa Anita, which opens Saturday, Sept. 26. While looking forward to five Grade 1’s on opening day at Santa Anita, and five stakes during the Los Alamitos meet, time for one last shot at Del Mar.

Want likely winners in the closing-day stakes? Big Macher in the Pirate’s Bounty, race 4; Nyquist in the Del Mar Futurity, race 8; and Imflatoutsweet in the Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf, race 9, all fit.

They are fastest in their fields, with corresponding low odds.

Meanwhile, the stakes also include runners likely to outperform their odds – “live” horses at big prices. How to play? Straight win bets will suffice.

Race 4

BIG MACHER is favored in the $80,000 Pirate’s Bounty Stakes, and indications are that the Grade 1 winner will fire first start back. If he does, the others are running for second. But an interesting comebacker makes his first start in California for a top stable, and at odds of 8-1 he is worth backing.

GLACKEN TOO has not raced since June, and might not be fast enough to win the stakes. The other possibility is that Glacken Too has improved for his new trainer, Phil D’Amato. The colt’s impressive workouts suggest that likelihood.

Summer was bittersweet for D’Amato, who entered Sunday having won 13 races to rank fifth in the standings. Big John B won two stakes, but graded winner Midnight Storm and stakes winner Papacoolpapacool went off form. Also, D’Amato’s top 2-year-old Young Brian was injured, as was fast 3-year-old sprinter Micks Miracle.

D’Amato has runners in five races Monday, including the race-4 longshot. Glacken Too is listed at 8-1, and he is “live” first start back.

Race 8

NYQUIST is favored in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity, based on a flashy win in the Grade 2 Best Pal. The knock on Nyquist is price. He is 5-2, based on a perfect-trip win last out. Meanwhile, a below-the-radar maiden winner offers potential value at odds of 5-1.

Bob Baffert has won the Del Mar Futurity 12 times since 1996. He tries for another with MT VEEDER. The colt’s debut was modest, based on his figure. He earned a 73 Beyer leading gate to wire. No big deal.

But a curious aspect to this year’s Futurity is that Nyquist and Mt Veeder are the only true front-runners. Mt Veeder is quicker. Drawn inside Nyquist, Mt Veeder is likely to make the lead.

Mt Veeder is reminiscent of Baffert-trained Rolling Fog. The 2012 Futurity was short on speed. Rolling Fog, ordinary maiden winner first out, wired the Futurity second time out. Mt Veeder has a similar pattern. Nyquist is “faster” on figures, the pace advantage of Mt Veeder gives him a chance to steal it at 5-1.

Race 9

It seems desperate to try making a case for a 30-1 shot in the next-to-last race of the meet. But so what? IMFLATOUTSWEET is favored in the $100k Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf. Her maiden win, long on turf, was solid. Not flashy, just solid. She is okay.

Meanwhile, maiden EXACTAMENTE is an attractive longshot. She is trained by Keith Desormeaux, whose 2-year-olds race into condition.

Desormeaux already won two stakes this year with maidens – second-time starter Right There in the Landaluce; Swipe in the Summer Juvenile Championship.

Exactamente improved second out, fourth in a maiden sprint while improving 12 points on the Beyer scale. The challenges on Monday include a surface (turf) she is not bred for (sired by dirt sprinter J P’s Gusto), and an outside post at a mile on turf (11 of 12).

But this much is certain about Exactamente – she is improving, and 2-year-olds trained by Desormeaux tend to maintain an upward trajectory (Texas Red last year, for example).

Exactamente might not be good enough. But at 30-1 in the program, she is worth a stab.

And what if all three longshot plays lose? No problem. Los Alamitos opens on Thursday. First post is 2 p.m. Pacific.