Free: Handicappers should note how horses are being bet

ARCADIA, Calif. – The main function of the odds board (tote board), is payoff information. But the board provides more than betting-market prices. In fact, the board can be used by bettors the same way spellcheck is used by writers – as an editing tool.

Most spelling mistakes are corrected before deadline, but many handicapping miscues are not clear until a race is run. If a “bet-check” tool could alert horseplayers to a potential mistake, would anyone use it? Many already do.

After applying the basics of condition class, speed, and pace, the odds board helps identify potential handicapping blunders. It happened at Santa Anita last Sunday. I made a case for import filly Royal Address in the Grade 3 Sweet Life. It seemed reasonable.

Royal Address was potentially the class of the field, she worked well for her U.S. debut, and her up-front style fit the race. She figured to start at or below her 4-1 morning line.

The market would have none of that. Royal Address got dissed in will-pays and the win pool. Her odds drifted to 7.80-1. Bettors who liked her at the early line missed something. The market, or perhaps computer-assisted wagering algorithms, had sent a message.

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And the board was right. Royal Address finished ninth.

A philosopher once said: “The wise man is one who knows what he does not know.”

Same with bettors. If the odds are out of whack, perhaps you missed something. I missed something on Royal Address. To me, her high odds did not make sense. Her price hinted she was not well-meant.

To be clear, I do not suggest betting only short prices. Higher-odds runners are preferred if one understands the reason for the price. Sweet Life winner Going Global paid $19.80, but her odds made sense. She was a mere maiden winner with ordinary European form.

The odds also made sense in the Gander Stakes at Aqueduct last Sunday. I liked Lobsta, who was 12-1 on the line and started at 5.90-1. Lobsta finished second behind Nicky the Vest, who entered with the top figure and crushed at $4.30.

So, 0 for 2 last week. Lobsta was a reasonable gamble. Royal Address was not, as the market predicted. Pickings are slim this week. Two races Sunday – a maiden turf race at Tampa Bay Downs, and a weak renewal of the Spring Fever Stakes at Santa Anita.

Tampa Bay Downs, race 7

Nine older maidens entered this turf mile, and some might remain maidens forever. But two lightly raced comebackers have upside – Implication and Kuramata.

Beyer par for this race at Tampa is 76, noted in past performances below the conditions and above “pps” of the first runner. Par is what typically is required to win at the level. A contender should have earned a figure within five points of par.

Implication has raced only twice, and he earned 74 on the Tampa course a year ago. To estimate the current form of a comebacker, trainer stats in Daily Racing Form past performances and DRF Formulator offer clues. Trainer Michael Stidham’s turf-route comebackers off 180 days or more won 15 of 61 the past five years, almost 25 percent.

Stidham’s efficiency with layoff horses suggest Implication is “in form.” His 74 Beyer indicates he is fast enough on speed. He finished second by a neck at the level, therefore fits on class. I expect Implication to drop below his 6-1 morning line.

Kuramata is the unknown; his only start was 14 months ago in England. How to assess his chances? Formulator provides insight. Excluding first-time starters, trainer Chad Brown is 9 for 18 in maiden turf routes at Tampa the past five years. A 50 percent win rate pretty much sums it up. Kuramata is live as the 5-2 program favorite.

Contenders also include Bernardino and Astroturf, but Implication and second preference Kuramata enter with the advantage. Expect both will start lower than 5-1. And yes, I will monitor the market just in case something was missed.

Santa Anita, race 8

Some races do not lend themselves to comprehensive analysis, and therefore cannot be bet with confidence. That includes the $100,000 Spring Fever Stakes for Cal-bred filly-mare sprinters. (The Spring Fever is DRF’s Sunday Race of the Day. Free DRF Formulator past performances are available here.)

All but one of the past six Spring Fever winners earned a Beyer of 87 or higher. Let’s call that par, and look for a filly who has run within five points. There aren’t any.

Bella Vita earned an 81, albeit a year ago. Unraced since March, she might be better at age 4. But in her last two works, all she did was outwork a slow maiden.

Hotitude earned a 75 two back. On figures, she is not fast enough. At least she has been racing regularly, and drops from a tough allowance. Her pressing style could lead to a good trip. Cassie Belle earned an 81 last out, but it was a turf mile. This is a dirt sprint.

With much reservation, Hotitude is my selection. The Spring Fever is not a race I plan to wager. Because sometimes, the best bet in racing is no bet at all.