It’s been a good run this year for favorites in graded stakes, and an even better run for favorites in the graded stakes Sunday at Belmont Park and Los Alamitos. Horseplayers might take that as a hint. Perhaps weekend races other than the Grade 2 John A. Nerud Stakes and Grade 3 Los Alamitos Derby offer more value. Perhaps other less-publicized races offer a chance to wager on a legitimate contender at higher odds. On the other hand, it is presumptuous to suggest the term “value” applies only to high-odds horses or high-risk wagers. The definition of value varies. While some bettors consider favorites a curse, others consider them a blessing. A fact that few will debate is favorites win graded stakes at a higher rate than non-graded races. The trend continued the first half of 2021. Favorites won more than 45 percent of graded races through June (88 for 193). And because the Nerud and Los Al Derby are dirt races, it is worth noting favorites won 47 percent of graded races on dirt (55 for 117). That’s a lofty success rate – nearly half of graded stakes on dirt won by chalk. And yet it hardly compares to the recent success of favorites in the graded races on Sunday. The Nerud, previously called the Belmont Sprint, moved to Belmont in 2014. Five of the six winners since then (it wasn’t run in 2020) were favorites. Horse-for-course Firenze Fire will try to join the list Sunday. He is listed at 3-5 by linemaker David Aragona. The Los Alamitos Derby, previously called the Swaps Stakes, moved from Hollywood Park to Los Alamitos in 2014. Five of the seven winners since then were favorites, all five odds-on. Defunded is an early favorite in Sunday’s five-entrant field. Value has been easy to find by simply following the money. In fact, favorites have been surprisingly profitable. The Nerud, in particular, has been a gold mine for chalk players. Betting all six Nerud favorites since the race moved to Belmont would have produced $2 win payoffs totaling $22.50. Not bad for a $12 investment. Field size averaged 7.1 starters per year, and only two winning favorites were odds-on. Betting all seven Los Al Derby favorites since the race moved would have produced win payoffs totaling $14.90. For a $14 investment, it beats break-even. One reason winning favorites paid so low is because field size averaged 5.7. It is possible, of course, the combined recent record (10 for 13) of favorites is a short-term quirk. But chalk has been reliable all year, everywhere, and in the two stakes. Perhaps value can be found Sunday by betting the same horse as everyone else. John A. Nerud Stakes Rail-drawn Firenze Fire enters without a knock. He has won 7 of 10 at Belmont, and the rail is fine at seven furlongs – 4 for 20 this meet, into Friday. Firenze Fire is the speed, and class, of the field. He won graded stakes at Belmont each of the past five years. Need another reason to accept the obvious? Trainer Kelly Breen won with his last seven odds-on starters. Over the past five years, Breen’s odds-on runners won 64 percent (61 for 96) and produced a flat-bet profit. The trainer stat is from DRF Formulator. Bettors unwilling to take odds-on can try the exacta. Mind Control might improve first start for Todd Pletcher, but 5-1 is unappealing. American Power will chase from second, a beneficial pace scenario. American Power is 6-1, which is not beneficial for the exacta. The “longshot” exacta candidate is 8-1 Wicked Trick, who got banged around at the break in his most recent start. He broke last and rallied to fourth in a race dominated by speed. Firenze Fire won; the 1-2-3 pacesetters did not change position. With a clean break, Wicked Trick might outrun his price and complete the exacta under Firenze Fire. Los Alamitos Derby Bob Baffert has been in the news a lot lately. If he makes news Sunday, it probably will be for winning his fifth straight Los Alamitos Derby, and sixth in seven years. He entered Defunded and Classier, two-three finishers in the Grade 3 Affirmed Stakes. Defunded finished 11 lengths clear of Classier, and at this stage is simply a better horse. But subsequent workouts suggest the screws are tightened on Classier. We’ll see about that, and who knows if both will start. Defunded earned Beyer Speed Figures of 82 or higher his last four starts; none of the others have reached 80. Furthermore, Los Alamitos is Baffert’s playground. He has won 20 of 44 graded stakes since daytime racing began in 2014. That is not likely to change Sunday. One longshot exacta candidate is Ingest, whose dirt form is suspect but his route form is not. If one of the Baffert trainees should misfire, Ingest could slip into the exacta in the least appealing race on the weekend stakes slate.