Free: Future stars coming out at Saratoga, Del Mar
Two-year-olds, high-class grass racing, and the year’s premier meets in New York and California mean summer has arrived. Saratoga opened Thursday, Del Mar opens July 22, and there is plenty to cover in this week’s handicapping notebook.
Sanford has chalky look
Is the Grade 3 Sanford on Saturday at Saratoga as easy to figure out as the Bashford Manor was on July 4 at Churchill Downs? No, but the 2-year-old stakes do share an element of predictability. Gulfport ($2.40) became the 14th favorite in 19 years to win the Bashford Manor; Sanford favorites have won 12 of the last 17.
Potential Sanford chalk Andiamo a Firenze would enter with the field’s top figure. His 80-Beyer Speed Figure debut romp was on a sloppy track, but he also works fast on a fast track. Andiamo a Firenze is a sibling to Firenze Fire, the 2017 Sanford winner who ended up winning 14 races and $2.7 million. In the 2022 Sanford, impressive debut winner Curly Jack should give Andiamo a Firenze a run for his money.
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Filly to watch – no ‘Kiddin’
It should be required reading for summer horseplayers – the Saratoga juvenile preview story by David Grening posted online at DRF.com. “Saratoga 2022: Top trainers loaded with 2-year-old talent” reveals close to 60 unraced 2-year-olds, from a full sister to a champion filly to a host of expensive and well-bred juveniles preparing to launch their careers. They will arrive in waves at Saratoga, in open and statebred maiden races, including an early-season runner with a big pedigree making her debut Friday in a statebred filly race.
Im Just Kiddin, by Justify and a sibling to 2017 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint winner Bar of Gold, entered race 1. John Kimmel trained Bar of Gold, who won her debut as a Saratoga 2-year-old in 2014. Kimmel also trains Im Just Kiddin. According to DRF Formulator, progeny of first-crop sire Justify are 2 for 6 first time out.
East grass fillies clearly best
Someday a filly from California may win the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks. But the class disparity between West Coast and East Coast turf races is severe, as Cairo Memories discovered finishing fifth in the July 9 Oaks. She was the eighth straight California filly to finish off the board since the Belmont Oaks moved to early summer.
Cairo Memories “came back well, scoped clean, no real excuse,” trainer Bob Hess Jr. said. “Just maybe a little too tough.”
A Grade 3 winner and Grade 1-placed, Cairo Memories will target the Del Mar Oaks on Aug. 20. Neige Blanche is the only California filly to finish in the money in the Belmont Oaks, albeit with a year-2020 lockdown asterisk. The race was run in September with just five entrants.
Nations Pride was best
Handicappers who liked Nations Pride in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby were on the right horse. Nations Pride finished second, but he was best.
He had a slow start and a wide trip, lost position, and came wide into the lane. He missed by three-quarters of a length.
In quotes to NYRA publicity, jockey Frankie Dettori said “I was the last one out and I had to play catch-up then and go through traffic. If he jumped, it could have been a different story. In America, if you give too many lengths away at the start, you’re going to pay at the end.”
The truth is, a slow start is bad news in any country. Bottom line: The best horse in the Belmont Derby finished second.
Baffert juveniles firing bullets
A day after maiden 3-year-old Rhetoric won a Los Alamitos maiden sprint by six lengths, his unnamed 2-year-old sibling by Curlin worked three furlongs in 37.60 at Los Alamitos. Bob Baffert trains both. The 3-year-old and the $800,000 juvenile were produced Grade 1 Diana winner Hard Not to Like.
Over at Santa Anita, Baffert 2-year-old colts are working fast preparing for Del Mar. Cave Rock, a $550,000 colt by Arrogate, gate-worked five furlongs Monday in a bullet 59.40. Newgate, an $850,000 Into Mischief, gate-worked five furlongs Sunday in a bullet 1:00. A Daily Racing Form preview of California 2-year-olds is budgeted for next week.
Hall of Fame credentials
A pair of well-bred, well-regarded 2-year-old fillies are in light training in Southern California and unlikely to debut until later in the season. Teena Ella, produced by Beholder and sired by War Front, “is a little late,” trainer Richard Mandella said, adding “she might not run” at Del Mar.
Zilkha, produced by Zenyatta and sired by Candy Ride, has not worked since late June. She is galloping.
“She’s not ready to handle a regular work schedule,” trainer John Shirreffs said.
Hopes are high for Teena Ella and Zilkha, both produced by Hall of Fame mares. It’s July. It’s early. Stay tuned.
This colt ain’t no donkey
An unraced juvenile at Monmouth Park is worth adding to stable mail as he nears his debut. He is Proud Mule, a speedy Army Mule colt whose dam won first out by more than six lengths and later produced a filly who won her debut by 15.
Proud Mule, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, has posted blazing works at Monmouth. Three of his first five were bullet works, including a 46-flat scorcher July 5. He slowed down slightly Tuesday, a half-mile in 48.20, breezing. Remember the name – Proud Mule.
Los Al Derby on decline
Tough to find a silver lining to the low-rated $125,000 Los Alamitos Derby on Saturday, won by High Connection with a soft 89 Beyer. That is one of the lowest figures since the race, formerly the Swaps at Hollywood Park, moved to Los Alamitos in 2014. Classier earned the same number last year, and Once On Whiskey got an 86 four years ago. Neither has won since.
High Connection may improve, but after four starts his numbers are allowance-grade. It’s sad a once-important race like the now-ungraded Los Alamitos Derby has lost relevance after being won by the likes of West Coast, Accelerate, and Shared Belief.
Betting Quarters to win dollars
You know you are either a fan or have a problem if you spent last weekend toggling back and forth between Thoroughbreds and Quarter Horses to watch and bet 34 trials for the Grade 1 Rainbow Futurity, which will be run this month at Ruidoso Downs.
Cyber Attack scored the fastest and most impressive victory of the July 8-9 trials at Ruidoso, winning the 400-yard race by 2 3/4 lengths in 19.44. Cyber Attack is trained by Chris O’Dell, ridden by Eduardo Nicasio, and will take some beating July 24 in the $1 million Rainbow Futurity.
For what it’s worth, favorites won 18 of the 34 trials. The $2 win payoffs totaled $72.80 for a flat profit betting chalk. Easy game, these Quarter Horses.
Del Mar sells out opener
News broke this week that Del Mar is sold out for opening day on Friday, July 22. Attendance will be capped at less than 22,000. Did you miss the deadline? Have no fear, StubHub is here. The online ticket broker lists opening-day clubhouse reserved seats at $100, preferred parking $40. Opening-day post time is 2 p.m.