Free: Finite steps up as British Idiom is flat in Rachel Alexandra return

Too much was expected from last year’s best 2-year-olds. Ask any Monday-morning handicapper.

You want order and consistency from season to season. You want top 2-year-olds to return as top 3-year-olds. Sometimes it happens, usually it does not. This year is a not.

British Idiom got dusted Saturday at Fair Grounds in her first start since she won the Breeders’ Cup with a 79 Beyer, second-lowest by a Juvenile Fillies winner. British Idiom, odds-on, was dusted Saturday by Finite, who did something new – she ran fast.

Finite earned a career-high 90 Beyer winning the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra and gives sire Munnings a second Kentucky Oaks contender along with Venetian Harbor in California. As for British Idiom, perhaps she is not Oaks caliber, not after Saturday’s defeat.

At least British Idiom had a built-in alibi – she had not raced in three and a half months. She did not “have to” win her comeback prep in the Rachel Alexandra. Problem is, she cannot win the Kentucky Oaks unless she somehow gets faster.

You have to ask the same question about British Idiom that was asked about Finite prior to her breakout victory – is she fast enough to win the Kentucky Oaks, or is British Idiom just the latest version of Champagne Room?

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Champagne Room won the 2016 Juvenile Fillies with a 78 Beyer, lowest by a Juvenile Fillies winner. The rest of her career, she won one ungraded stakes race from four starts.

This is not to disparage Champagne Room, but we’re looking back at 2-year-olds trying to predict the future for 3-year-olds. Champagne Room is one of several Juvenile Fillies winners that were not fast at 2, and remained not fast at 3. History repeats.

The four previous lowest-rated Juvenile Fillies winners (83 Beyer or less) subsequently achieved little. Ria Antonia (2013), Take Charge Brandi (2014), Champagne Room, and Caledonia Road (2017) went a combined 3 for 18 without a graded win after their juvenile seasons.

Of course, an argument that supports British Idiom has merit. The three-two finishers behind her in the Breeders’ Cup – Bast and Donna Veloce – returned to finish one-two in the Grade 1 Starlet at Los Alamitos. Bast, a three-time Grade 1 winner, also won a Grade 2.

Bast is in light training with no specified comeback target. “She’s jogging and galloping, I’m not even thinking about it,” trainer Bob Baffert said last week.

Donna Veloce is penciled in for a March 8 comeback in the Grade 3 Santa Ysabel at Santa Anita.

As for British Idiom, her 82-Beyer comeback is not the end of the world. She should improve. But she faces a steep climb to re-emerge as a Kentucky Oaks contender for trainer Brad Cox.

Steve Asmussen trains Finite, and he acknowledged the success of Midwest-based Oaks fillies. In a post-race interview, Asmussen said: “We know the importance of running here at the Fair Grounds. It’s obvious what the series here has meant . . . the last several years.”

Five of the last eight Kentucky Oaks winners, and nine of the last 16, raced in spring at Fair Grounds. The 2018 and 2019 Oaks winners – Serengeti Empress and Monomoy Girl – scored decisive victories in the Rachel Alexandra. Finite’s 4 3/4-length victory was decisive.

Finite is versatile, 5 for 7, and unlike vanquished champion British Idiom, Finite’s 90-Beyer victory in February is fast enough for her to be considered among the early favorites for the Kentucky Oaks.

A couple more notes related to Saturday . . .

◗ Like its filly counterpart, the 2019 BC Juvenile looks dubious. The winner Storm the Court finished a lackluster fourth in his return; runner-up Anneau d’Oro ran second in a Grade 1 at Los Alamitos and then bombed Saturday at Fair Grounds; BC third Wrecking Crew finished nowhere in his next start, same as fourth-place Scabbard in his next two starts.

◗ Nice win by front-runner Mr. Monomoy in the faster split of the Grade 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds, but look out if Santa Anita-based Royal Act ships to the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby on March 21. Royal Act “has never worked as well on dirt as he is now; he’s pretty special,” trainer Peter Eurton said last week. Chalk it up to blinkers and maturity.

◗ Now that the demons in her head are in check, the next challenge for Grade 2 Santa Monica winner Hard Not to Love will be two turns in the Grade 1 Beholder Mile on March 14. Will she route? Mike Smith says yes.

“I’ve been saying that since I won on her the first time,” Smith said in a televised post-race interview, adding that he told her trainer, John Shirreffs, that she wants two turns.

Although the Beholder will be a fun battle with route-proven comebacker Ollie’s Candy, in-form sprinter Hard Not to Love will be hard to beat.

◗ It’s worth noting “Coast-to-Coast wagering preview” posted on drf.com pitched a seven-frame shutout Saturday. Call it a spring-training dose of humility.