Free: Early speed deadly in two-turn dirt races
ARCADIA, Calif. – How much money could a horseplayer make by simply identifying the likely pacesetter in two-turn dirt races this season at Santa Anita?
Pacesetters won more than one-third of dirt routes (40 of 115) through last Sunday, with payoffs that would nearly double a bettor’s outlay ($2 win payoffs totaled $412.40).
It seems like an easy system – comb Daily Racing Form past performances, identify the speed in dirt routes, and let the money flow.
It is not that simple. The pace sometimes is set unexpectedly, such as Ole Silver ($25.40) on May 2. The benefit of hindsight allows one to visualize a scenario in which Ole Silver might set or press. She had routed just once before, without getting close to the lead. The comment line in her PPs provided an alibi: “Pinballed break.”
Perhaps with a clean start, Ole Silver could produce speed. She did, and was gone. Other times, identifying a potential pacesetter is easier, such as a stretch-out sprinter.
High-odds front-running winners this season that fit the sprint-to-route pattern are Miss Kitness ($40.40), Robin’s Legacy ($24.40), and Question Authority ($41.40). Up-front upset winner Lambeau ($35) had set the pace five previous starts into his comeback.
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The aforementioned winners produced the highest payoffs this season by dirt-route front-runners, and are only for illustration. It is always easy after the fact.
Bettors who identified any high-odds pacesetting winner, and took advantage, can take a bow. The rest of us will keep looking, to the eighth race Sunday at Santa Anita.
The Grade 2 Summertime Oaks for 3-year-old fillies returns to the stakes schedule after being scrapped a year ago due to the pandemic lockdown. Soothsay is the likely favorite in the 1 1/16-mile race, and if she reproduces her 87 Beyer victory in the Santa Anita Oaks, she could win right back.
But this is about speed, an element in short supply in the Summertime Oaks. And the likely pacesetter seems apparent.
Lady Aces finished fourth in her debut, followed by a sharp sprint win second time out. She pressed the pace, kicked away, and won by more than three lengths. Though both starts were sprints, trainer Peter Eurton is confident she will stay two turns.
“She acts like a filly that wants to go farther,” Eurton said, acknowledging the class hike from maiden sprint to graded route “It’s a little steep, but it’s coming up kind of short.”
Four of the five in the Summertime Oaks rally from behind. Lady Aces should make the lead. Breaking from the rail, it’s not like she has an option. None of the others have produced as much speed as Lady Aces in her maiden win.
Lady Aces is by the promising young stallion Constitution, whose progeny include Grade 1 route winner Tiz the Law and three-time Chilean Group 1 route winner Breakpoint, now training at Belmont Park with Chad Brown. Constitution also sired graded turf-route winners Laura’s Light and Venezuelan Hug. Sire data is available in DRF Formulator.
On the female side, Lady Aces was produced by Economy of Motion, a Pleasantly Perfect mare who is a sibling of multiple Grade 1 route winner Paradise Woods. The point is, Lady Aces is bred to stay the trip.
But the most important factor Sunday is pace. And if Lady Aces breaks running from the inside post, makes the lead and gets comfortable, she can be long gone.
Small-field syndrome
The problem with small fields such as the Summertime Oaks is logical contenders rarely slip through the cracks. The smaller the field, the more likely the betting market has accurately “priced” the field. Mistakes are rare, odds usually reflect a horse’s true chance.
Four-horse fields this season produced 43 percent winning favorites (14 for 32) with a $2 median win payoff of $5. (Median is half higher, half lower). Five-horse fields produced a gawdy 50 percent win rate for favorites (46 for 91) and a median win payoff of $5.20.
There are exceptions. Order and Law ($16) wired a turf mile last week and produced the season’s highest payoff in a four-horse field. Early this month, Rather Nosy ($40.60) set or pressed the pace in a dirt sprint and produced the highest five-runner win payoff.
The common denominator with Order and Law and Rather Nosy – early speed.
Red-board review
Hubris was wiped out at the break in the Cinema Stakes last Sunday at Santa Anita, race 7. Hubris, the favorite, was pulled up and vanned off. The horse that wiped him out was fourth-place Jimmy Irish. After a review, stewards allowed the order to stand. Odd.
Ida Claire finished seventh at 7.70-1 in the Alcatraz Stakes on Sunday at Golden Gate Fields, race 8. The field’s only filly was simply not good enough.