Free: Despite short fields, Tizamagician, Cali Bay might be playable

I’m really looking forward to a pair of Grade 3 stakes Sunday at Santa Anita. Horseplayers do enjoy sarcasm while betting four- and five-horse fields.

Brickyard Ride may or not be the best sprinter in California, but the speedball certainly is one of the quickest. Trouble is, only four horses entered the six-furlong Kona Gold Stakes, race 8 on Sunday. The favorite offers minimal value.

It’s too bad, because Brickyard Ride is fun to watch and sometimes fun to bet. But the four-horse Kona Gold is nothing like the 11-runner Cal Cup Sprint in January or nine-runner San Carlos in March. Brickyard Ride started at 4.90-1 and 5-1 respectively, and ran his rivals off their feet in both races.

From the first 76 races of the meet at six furlongs, only one winner set faster fractions than Brickyard Ride, who went 21.63 seconds and 44.35 winning the Cal Cup by open lengths, followed by an even better performance in the seven-furlong Grade 2 San Carlos.

Brickyard Ride set the meet’s fastest fractions for seven furlongs in the San Carlos – 21.63 and 43.93 – and drew away. So yes, Brickyard Ride is fast and fun to watch. But remember, we’re also making bets. Well, maybe not in a four-horse field.

:: Enhance your handicapping with DRF’s Santa Anita Clocker Report

It is a cockamamie idea to suggest every winner is an overlay. Santa Anita has run 18 races this season with four runners, the median $2 win payoff is $3.70 (half higher, half lower). Favorites won nine, but a win wager on every favorite produced a flat-bet loss ($1.40 return per $2 bet). Winners often are underlays, particularly in small fields.

Brickyard Ride should wire the Kona Gold. None of his three rivals are quick enough to stay with him, and speed is powerful – nine of the last 14 races at six furlongs were won by the pacesetter. Unfortunately, value declines with field size. And in the case of Brickyard Ride in a four-horse field, you can’t bet on him and you can’t bet against him.

Tokyo City Stakes

The supporting feature Sunday at Santa Anita is the five-runner Tokyo City, race 3, at 1 1/2 miles on dirt. The distance rarely is run on the main track, and handicapping considerations always include who can stay the trip. A more important factor is class.

Each of the past six Tokyo City winners (winter meet) were dropping from higher-class races. This year’s field includes one dropper and four allowance horses. The dropper is graded-placed Tizamagician, fifth last out in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap.

The challenge facing Tizamagician is pace. He and Zestful employ similar styles. The thought is Tizamagician can ration his speed switching to Flavien Prat, while Zestful and speed rider Edwin Maldonado set the pace. Tizamagician, in theory, can tuck into a sweet trip alone in second and reel in the leader. Another likely winner at low odds.

Favorites in five-runner fields are 22 for 42 with a median payoff of $4.50. Backing favorites in five-runner fields has been a virtual break even – $84 bet, $82 returned.

Tizamagician is less imposing than Brickyard Ride in the Kona Gold. But if Tizamagician drifts to 8-5, the only dropper in the Tokyo City would qualify as a low-odds overlay.

Formulator streak

An improbable streak is on the line in race 6 on Sunday at Santa Anita, a maiden turf sprint. European import Cali Bay makes his U.S. debut for trainer Phil D’Amato, whose streak with Euro imports is impressive. According to DRF Formulator, D’Amato has won six straight.

In addition to graded winner Going Global, D’Amato won with his last five imports in maiden races (Cathkin Peak, Majestic Steps, Earls Rock, Coulthard, and Equilove).

If trainer stats are not enough, the April 12 work by Cali Bay (viewed on XBTV.com) seals it. Cali Bay broke off in front of graded winner Gregorian Chant and maintained his advantage while under a hold. The other rider asked Gregorian Chant for his best.

Based on Formulator statistics and workout analysis, Cali Bay will be tough to beat. In a relatively large field of nine maidens, a price of 2-1 might not be too much to ask.

◗ I just can’t shake a potential sports comparison between Kentucky Derby early favorite Essential Quality and this year’s Gonzaga University basketball team – undefeated until the one that counts most.

◗ Bettors on “all-others” in the final Kentucky Derby Future Wager find themselves in an enviable position with a multi-horse entry at 5.20-1. Among the No. 24 “all-others” are winners of the Arkansas Derby, Florida Derby, Wood Memorial, and Jeff Ruby. It’s a deep group, for now, and also includes the Florida Derby and Wood runners-up.