Free: Del Mar analysis for Monday, Nov. 12, 2018

1. Midnight Miracle

2. Hot Rod Gal

3. Portal Creek

MIDNIGHT MIRACLE returns to the Del Mar surface on which she ran the best race of her career, a high-figure maiden romp during the summer meet. Although the 2-year-old filly "won" her next two starts (dq'ed once for interference), her best race was at Del Mar. Drawn outside, with speed to be forwardly placed and a versatile style, 'MIRACLE is logical. Trainer Bob Hess Jr. won with 7 of his last 9 favorites. HOT ROD GAL enters with the top last-start figure, a 60 Beyer earned in a five-length debut romp. A repeat puts her on equal terms with the top choice. However, 'GAL benefitted from an unusually slow pace (46.09) in the maiden win, a scenario unlikely to recur. Based on raw ability, she fits in this starter allowance, the challenge is reproducing her win in a race likely to unfold at a quicker tempo. PORTAL CREEK put it all together last out, winning a maiden race by five lengths. If she runs two alike, she could upset. Either way, she keeps the pace honest. Her 46.55 half-mile is actually faster than the half-mile split set by HOT ROD GAL when speed of the surface is considered.

1. Chasing Yesterday

2. It'sjustanillusion

3. Boujie Girl

CHASING YESTERDAY and IT'SJUSTANILLUSION, one-two in a highly rated Santa Anita stakes last month at six furlongs, meet again at seven furlongs. CHASING YESTERDAY gets the call to repeat. Already proven over the Del Mar track (summer maiden win), she trained exceptionally well since her last start, and benefits by the additional furlong. She wore down her rival last out at the shorter distance; seven furlongs should be fine for the sibling to Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. However, IT'SJUSTANILLUSION ran super while finishing a half-length back. 'ILLUSION set the fastest fractions of the Santa Anita fall meet for six furlongs (21.49 and 44.72), fought back when hooked, and finished more than four lengths clear of third. It was a winning effort; she has a shot to lead gate to wire. BOUJIE GIRL lost her chance at the break last time in the G1 Alcibiades at Keeneland. Her back-to-back thirds in graded stakes on this track during summer give her a license to upset.

1. Flip the Coin Jan

2. Buckstopper Kit

3. Wild Wild Kingdom

Front-runner FLIP THE COIN JAN faces a problematic pace scenario in this $40k claiming turf mile for 3-year-olds, because three rivals have a similar style. Nonetheless, 'JAN gets the call. He wired similar on this course in summer, upset older allowance rivals two back, and last out set the pace to deep stretch in a N2X turf sprint vs. older before he faded the final eighth. He drops to an age-restricted claiming race, and is the choice to lead gate to wire. It will not be easy, due to the presence of other speed. BUCKSTOPPER KIT would benefit if the pace gets too fast. He misfired last out at Santa Anita after breaking slowly, but is refitted with blinkers, reunited with the last rider he won with, and returning to the course on which he won a race in summer. He will rally late. WILD WILD KINGDOM is one of the aforementioned front-runners that could make it tough on the top choice. On the other hand, the switch to jockey Flavien Prat suggests 'KINGDOM will ration his speed and rally from behind. He finished close to the top choice here in summer. PLATINUM EQUITY and first-time gelding SPIRIT MISSION have speed.

1. Gia Lula

2. Desired Edge

3. Gone Skyward

Career maiden GIA LULA is sitting on a win in the 11th start of her career. Only two of those starts were at this maiden-20 level, on this racetrack in summer. She actually ran fast enough to win both times. Freshened since late August, with enough speed to establish position from the inside post, GIA LULA enters as the most probable winner on the card. DESIRED EDGE lost her chance at the break last time out. A front-runner, she steadied and was away last. That was the end of that. But her third-place finish two starts back in a Cal-bred maiden-50 puts her in the picture with top choice. GONE SKYWARD showed speed and faded in her debut vs. tougher company. Class drop and blinkers second time out, she will be forwardly placed. BIG BASE improved a bunch last time when blinkers were added.

1. Cupid's Claws

2. Stonegate

3. Sellwood

A mile and one-eighth on turf was slightly out of reach last time for CUPID'S CLAWS. He chased a strong pace, inherited the lead into the lane, but ran out of steam the final furlong and finished third. The improving maiden shortens to a mile on turf, and figures for a cozy trip positioned second or third behind the speed. STONEGATE set the fast pace last time in the race the top choice exits, and ran surprisingly well to finish fourth after opening up on a swift pace. If he can ration his speed more efficiently, he looms a contender with another front-running/pace-pressing trip. SELLWOOD finished in front of the top two choices last time, runner-up by a nose. It was his third straight loss as the favorite. SELLWOOD finished in the money 7 of 9 starts, and will rally late. One of these days, he will get there. ARCH ANTHEM returns from a one-year layoff as a first-time gelding. BLITZKRIEG is a candidate to set the pace, stretching out from a fourth-place sprint in which he contested the pace.

1. Point Piper

2. Dukes Up

3. Pioneerof the West

A host of declining-form veterans entered this $10k claiming route. The call is POINT PIPER, winner of the G3 Longacres Mile at Emerald Downs in 2016 and Harry Brubaker Stakes at Del Mar in 2015. He plummets in class from $25-32k claiming to near bottom; four starts at Del Mar produced one win, and three runner-up finishes. DUKES UP finished second last time for a $20k tag. He was claimed, but the claim was voided after he did not pass a post-race veterinary exam. That race was three months ago. Freshened since, first time at this low level, he will rally late. PIONEEROF THE WEST also drops, from a fourth-place finish for $12.5k. However, the runner-up from that race (My Farmer) returned Friday to finish nowhere as the favorite against better. FOREVER JUANITO finished second for $20k, was claimed, but the claim was voided. Now he shows up for $10k. MONTEREY SHALE figures for a front-running/pace-pressing trip in a field somewhat light on pace.

1. Seven Scents

2. Honcho

3. More Ice

If he reproduces his dirt form while moving to turf for the first time, two-time stakes-placed SEVEN SCENTS can win this first-level allowance. The best race of his career was his only start around two turns; he stretches back out after dueling on a fast pace in a sprint stakes. Turf should be okay. His sire Goldencents has had three turf wins from 24 turf starters; the dam of 'SCENTS was a claiming-caliber mare that won five times on grass. HONCHO was in tough his last two starts in stakes, but his fifth-place stakes finish over the Del Mar turf in summer makes him a contender in this N1X. MORE ICE ran the best race of his career winning a maiden race the last time he raced over this course. OUR SILVER OAK, listed as a vet scratch from a Nov. 3 Cal-bred stakes, is an Unusual Heat colt trying grass for the first time.

1. Stay in Yo Lane

2. Shake N Fries

3. Hard to Come Home

Two turns was too far last time for STAY IN YO LANE; the maiden-claiming 2-year-od cracked as the favorite. But his sprint form is okay; his third-place debut three starts back would be fast enough. He might be quick enough to set the pace, because this race came up conspicuously void of true speed. SHAKE N FRIES set tepid fractions and faded to fourth in his debut here in August. Gelded since, he returns at the same level and should fire his best shot first start back. This is only his second start, he has room to improve. HARD TO COME HOME is a first-time starter from a stable that occasionally pops with this type; LAGOON MACAROON drops in class for the second start of his career.