Free: Cross-country plays for Saturday, April 18, 2020

Cross-country plays for Saturday, April 18, 2020

Oaklawn Park is the afternoon focus Saturday, but not until a pair of standouts race at Gulfstream Park, and a longshot seeks a maiden upset at Tampa Bay Downs. Diving in:

GP, race 3 (1:45 ET) – The “cross-country cinch” for Saturday is Cat’s Astray (3), five-time runner-up at this nonwinners-three claiming level and fastest in the field. A speed-figure standout, Cat’s Astray should deliver at less than her 9-5 morning line.

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TAM, race 7 (3:28 ET) – He must cope with pace rivals in both posts to his direct outside, but Safe and Sound (1) merits longshot consideration in this maiden turf route. He has improving form, tactical speed, and should get the jump over favorites Maroon Maniac (4) and Economic Policy (5). Safe and Sound is 10-1. Slightly less is okay.

GP, race 9 (4:53 ET) – Mintd (7) had every reason to lose her U.S. debut last month, but she won anyway. Keen, rank, and wide early, she let loose with an extended rally from next to last and inched clear. Impressive. She has more speed than she showed; this N2X turf mile is short on pace. A splashy chestnut with a big, white face, Mintd can handle the class hike. She is 10-1 in the program, perhaps a typo. Expect her to vie for favoritism.

OP, race 8 (4:14 CT) – Is this the country’s most predictable sprint stakes? Favorites have won 12 of the last 18 Count Fleet Sprints, including the last four. The stat supports program favorite Whitmore (9), a two-time Count Fleet winner. Second choice is quick Bobby’s Wicked One (4), whose chances are compromised by fellow speedster Mr. Jagermeister (6) two stalls to his outside.

Flagstaff (2) gets top billing. Fast and versatile, he could get a great trip just off the pace. Flagstaff has maintained form since last summer, he won a recent Grade 2 “ridden out” and looked super posting a bullet work April 12 at Santa Anita (work viewed on XBTV.com). Flagstaff faces a deeper field than he has been facing in California, and 7-2 is no bargain, but he is a sharp sprinter in peak form. Flagstaff is the one to beat.

OP, race 9 (4:45 CT) – Mt. Brave (9) is better than her recent finishes. She got the best of Grade 1-placed pace rival Amy’s Challenge two back and beat two pace rivals last time. In both, she won the battle but lost the war – third and fourth. She drops from stakes, is drawn outside her chief rivals, and has run fast figures. She could get chewed up on the lead again, but at 10-1 it’s a front-running risk worth taking.

OP, race 10 (5:16 CT) – What post positions at Oaklawn have produced the highest percentage of winners at a mile and a sixteenth over the past two decades? Answer: posts 13 and 14 – 33 percent wins both. It’s a goofy stat, both are 1 for- 3, yet offers some solace to supporters of Ce Ce (14). She and Serengeti Empress are legit. The surprising program favorite Come Dancing (4) faces a tall order – two turns and a layoff. Pass on her.

Ollie’s Candy (1) is the pari-mutuel play. She needed her comeback, third behind Ce Ce. Ollie’s Candy has worked well since and tends to race into condition. Expect a forward move second start back. Doubt her 12-1 program odds will be offered, but in a race that sets up for a closer, Ollie’s Candy is the play at 4-1 or higher.