Free: Cross-country plays for Saturday, April 11, 2020

I’m shopping for prices on Saturday at Oaklawn Park and Gulfstream Park, followed by chalk on Saturday night at Los Alamitos:

OP, race 3 (1:39 CT) – Most likely winner? Easy. If he reproduces his 83-Beyer runner-up debut, Skol Factor (8) should win this maiden special-weight at a short price. But we’re looking for horses eligible to outrun their odds, such as Sailor Chow (6). Each start is better than the start before, his TimeformUS pace figures are improving, and he is up in class from a maiden-50 that produced two next-out maiden-claiming winners. Sailor Chow is not the most likely winner, but he is better than his 12-1 odds suggest. Live longshot.

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GP, race 6 (2:52 ET) – Price play, quashed. Was prepared to take a longshot swing with 30-1 comebacker Bahamian Beat (12), but he was re-entered a statebred maiden race Sunday. Absent the overlay, and not enamored with the familiar faces, this might be the right spot for first-time starter Mister Winston (4), listed at 9-2. But honestly, more inclined to pass.

GP, race 10 (4:54 ET) – The 10-1 speedster Tale of Success could get chewed up on the lead in this entry-level allowance. Or maybe not. Her allowance win vs. Florida-bred fillies three starts back compares favorably to this field. Tale of Success, front-running longshot, is worth a gamble even if she is bet down a couple points.

OP, race 9 (4:43 CT) – Many chances in the $150,000 Oaklawn Mile, led by legit favorite Tom’s d’Etat (3). But a contender could slip through the cracks. Circumstances were against Bankit (8) last out when he finished last in a $350k stakes race. He was shuffled slightly into the far turn, wide into the lane, and the speed did not come back. Draw a line through it. Runner-up both previous starts, sufficient pace to flatter his rally, and a fat price at 15-1. At very least, Bankit can outrun his high odds from the middle of the pack.

LA, races 2-4 pick three (6:28 PT) – The Los Alamitos night program includes five races for Thoroughbreds at 870 yards. This pick three is only for the sake of action, and begins with back-to-back favorites trained by Jeff Mullins. Race 2 favorite K P Indy (3) scored a sharp maiden win last out; race 3 favorite Into Mystic (6) is a win machine from Sunland. The favorites look vulnerable in race 4, therefore will buy the race.

The pick three play, $1 minimum, races 2-4: K P Indy (3) in race 2, with Into Mystic (6) in race 3, with “all” in race 4. Action-bet total: $8.