Free: Count Again will be closing fast in Kilroe
ARCADIA, Calif. – Notes and observations, from Santa Anita to Saudi Arabia to Gulfstream Park and back to Santa Anita . . .
Sneak peek at six stakes Saturday at Santa Anita: With or without Brickyard Ride, the Grade 2 San Carlos (race 4) at seven furlongs suits route-to-sprint Eight Rings. Going to Vegas can reel in Leggs Galore in the Grade 2 Buena Vista (race 5) at a mile on turf. As Time Goes By looks obvious in the Beholder Mile (race 9). Count Again tops the Grade 1 Frank E. Kilroe Mile (race 10). The most probable winner Saturday runs in the final race – Express Train in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap (race 11). Easy game.
The biggest stakes field Saturday at Santa Anita is the 12-entrant Kilroe, which is the final leg of a Coast-to-Coast All Turf Stakes pick five (12 percent takeout) combining stakes at Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita. Bettors might need to go deep in the last leg. The last seven Kilroe winners paid double digits; favorites are 0 for 8 since 2013. And yet, Count Again looks solid. Third in last year’s Kilroe and flashy Grade 3 winner last out, Count Again has raced a mile on turf three times in California. According to Formulator, in all three races he ran faster with each successive quarter-mile. That includes his last-out win – 24.43 seconds, 23.84, 23.51, and 22.35. Win or lose, Count Again will be finishing fastest.
O’Neil shows faith in Herrera
Apprentice rider Diego Herrera is making an impression. Trainer Doug O’Neill will stick with the 17-year-old on Big Cap longshot Soy Tapatio. O’Neill noted Herrera’s success “going two turns and turf, things that generally take [an apprentice] time.” O’Neill and Herrera are 5 of 17 this meet, including maiden and allowance wins with Soy Tapatio.
“Diego has really gotten to know him,” O’Neill said. “I think a mile and a quarter is within his capabilities.”
Herrera ranks sixth in the standings; he has ridden multiple winners for O’Neill, Phil D’Amato, Richard Baltas, and Ryan Hanson. Over the past two weeks, only Juan Hernandez (10 wins) rode more Santa Anita winners than Herrera (7).
Santa Anita Handicap history
Santa Anita Handicap history, on this date (March 4): In 1990, Ruhlmann wired the field at $47.80, the first of four Big Cap wins for jockey Gary Stevens, the eighth of nine for trainer Charlie Whittingham. In 2000, General Challenge won as the favorite, the first Big Cap for jockey Corey Nakatani and first for trainer Bob Baffert. And on this date in 2006, Lava Man won his first of two Big Caps, Nakatani up for O’Neill.
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Uncertain weekend forecast
The Santa Anita Handicap was run on a wet main track only once in the past 20 years; Accelerate won as the 2018 favorite on wet fast. This weekend’s weather forecast is uncertain. As of Wednesday morning, the forecast called for an 82 percent chance of rain on Friday, dropping to 24 percent on Saturday. Six of the 11 races Saturday at Santa Anita are on turf, including the Frank E. Kilroe Mile and the Buena Vista. Here’s hoping the turf course can handle a bit of wet weather, if necessary.
Saudi Cup purse still unpaid
The 2022 Saudi Cup was run last week. On a related note, Jason Servis’s trial recently was postponed until 2023. Now is a fitting time to update the 2020 Saudi Cup won by Maximum Security, then trained by Servis. The $10 million purse Maximum Security earned remains unpaid. In a statement last week to Daily Racing Form, a Saudi Cup representative wrote: “The status around The Saudi Cup 2020 winner’s purse remains unchanged. We continue to monitor the U.S. legal situation closely and require an outcome from that process to complete our own investigation. We remain fully committed to completing this exercise as quickly as possible.”
Pick 15 for $5 million
What is the likelihood that favorites win the 15 stakes Saturday at Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita? An online contest requires players pick the 15 winners. The contest, sponsored by 1/ST, offers a $5 million prize to be split among players who identify the winners of nine stakes at Gulfstream and six at Santa Anita. Good luck with that. Even if favorites historically won 50 percent (the actual win rate is lower), the chance of all 15 favorites winning is 32,768-1. If favorites historically won 33 percent, the chance is 14 million-1. But, good news! The contest is free, and therefore takeout rate is zero percent.
Speed in Kentucky Derby preps
Gulfstream Park is not as speed-friendly as many believe, at least not in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth, which will be run Saturday. Speed was not required in most recent editions. Greatest Honour (2021), Code of Honor (2019), and Gunnevera (2017) rallied from more than eight lengths behind; Mohaymen (2016) and Orb (2013) won after being positioned near the back. Santa Anita, by contrast, has been all speed in the Grade 2 San Felipe. The race, also Saturday, was won by the pacesetter in seven of the last eight editions. That seemingly benefits San Felipe front-runner Forbidden Kingdom. Is he distance-challenged? Either way, Forbidden Kingdom is the one to catch.
Turf miles offering more value
Value-minded bettors will agree – Santa Anita dirt miles pale betting-wise compared to turf miles. Dirt-mile favorites (all levels) won 10 of 14 the past month, when average field size was 5.5 and median win payoff $4. During the same time frame, turf-mile favorites won 8 of 25, average field size was 7.4, and median win payoff $7. Draw your own conclusion, but in terms of wagering appeal, dirt and turf miles are night and day. As a side note, the most likely winner Friday is dirt-mile chalk – Mongolian Legend in race 3.
Mo Gold strong in turf sprint
Posted fractions in Santa Anita turf sprints often seem strange, such as the 24.05 opening quarter in the Wishing Well Stakes on Feb. 26. Final times also cause raised eyebrows, but make no mistake about Feb. 25 maiden winner Mo Gold. His 1:07.80 win – second fastest six furlongs on turf this meet – was impressive. Mo Gold finished second twice, after which trainer Jeff Bonde removed blinkers. He broke like a shot under Mike Smith and produced a stronger finish. Larry and Marianne Williams own and bred the 3-year-old colt by Uncle Mo who is a sibling to a pair of stakes-winning fillies. Mo Gold may be heard from. Can he dirt? “Oh, he’ll handle dirt,” Bonde said. “He trains on it very well.”
Hodl yet to show her value
On the winter day three years ago stakes winner Thirteen Arrows foaled a filly by Medaglia d’Oro, the price of one Bitcoin was $3,915. It was Feb. 18, 2019. Since then, the crypto rocketed up in value by a factor of more than 10; this week’s price topped $44,000. Relevance? The Medaglia d’Oro foal is named Hodl. In the volatile world of Bitcoin investing, HODL is an acronym for “Hold on for Dear Life” – buy, hold, and disregard price fluctuations. Simon Callaghan trains the filly Hodl, a 3-year-old at Santa Anita. Can she run? “It’s early days,” Callaghan cautioned. Similar to Bitcoin.