Free: Chance It, Authentic get jobs done in different ways

Although nobody wins a Derby the first week of January, interest was keen for a pair of 3-year-old stakes last Saturday at Santa Anita and Gulfstream Park, races run under dissimilar conditions.

Aside from both races restricted by age, both at one mile and won by the favorite, comparing the Grade 3 Sham at Santa Anita and $100,000 Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream Park was apples and oranges.

The Sham was a glorified allowance in which every runner was eligible to the first condition. It was a two-turn race with a slow pace, won in a runaway. Conversely, the Mucho Macho Man field included four stakes winners. It was a one-turn race with a fast pace, won in a ding-dong thriller.

So, who is better? – 7 3/4-length Sham winner Authentic, or Mucho Macho Man winner by a head Chance It? They may never meet, but it’s a fun debate. Mucho Macho Man winners are 3-0 head-to-head versus Sham winners.

Still, the Sham has become an accurate predictor of future class since it was moved from March to January eight years ago. Goldencents won the 2013 Sham and later won two Breeders’ Cup Dirt Miles; Collected (2016) and Gormley (2017) won Grade 1’s; McKinzie (2018) is a multiple Grade 1 winner and still one of the country’s top older horses.

Just maybe, Authentic will join the list. Funny thing is, Bob Baffert did not want to run the debut sprint winner in the Sham: “I wanted to give him another short race, two short races, and then stretch him. But the [allowance] race didn’t go.”

Didn’t matter, the Sham was gift-wrapped. Authentic broke running and made the lead with surprising ease. Expected presser Taishan broke slowly and sputtered. Uncaptured Hero, whose 45-and-change sprint speed curiously translated to 48-and-change in the route, essentially handed Authentic the race.

Furthermore, the Sham included an elephant in the room. Or rather, one that was missing from the room. Honor A. P., dominant maiden route winner, probably would have been favored, but he came up “off” in his right front and did not enter.

It would have been an interesting showdown – Honor A. P. vs. Authentic. Authentic may have won the Sham regardless. Rest assured the margin would have been less than 7 3/4 lengths.

This is not to knock Authentic, who busted open the Sham passing the quarter pole and earned a 90 Beyer Speed Figure despite drifting in and out through the lane. How good will he be when he learns to run straight? Baffert will consider adding blinkers or ear plugs.

Authentic gives Baffert another Derby contender to go with Thousand Words and Eight Rings. Next for Thousand Words? Baffert said the first option is the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis on Feb. 1 at Santa Anita. Baffert said he’s hoping to run Eight Rings in the Grade 2 Rebel on March 14 at Oaklawn Park.

Plans are subject to change while the division fluctuates. John Shirreffs-trained Express Train, among the most highly regarded 2019 juveniles, returned to the track last week after 60 days off. There is still time for Express Train to make the big races in spring.

“The way they do it now, there’s no sense being in a hurry at this time of year,” Shirreffs said. He was referring to the Kentucky Derby points system, which is heavily weighted to the final preps. Shirreffs also is awaiting a diagnosis for Honor A. P.

Minutes after Authentic won at Santa Anita, Chance It returned at Gulfstream. The multiple Florida-bred stakes winner had not started since September. Daily Racing Form workout analysts were enthusiastic about his condition.

Chance It had to work hard to win the Mucho Macho Man. He earned it. For the first time since his career debut, Chance It ate dirt. No bother. He tucked third or fourth on the rail behind a hot pace (22.42 seconds and 45.10), cut the corner, and hooked up with As Seen on Tv.

Those two went head-to-head. As Seen on Tv held the advantage, but a tenacious Chance It re-rallied inside. He won by a head, galloped out far in front of the runner-up, and earned a 94 Beyer.

Although the final quarter-mile was a slow 25.97, Chance It was chasing a hot pace. By contrast, at Santa Anita with an easier race flow, Authentic finished in 25.39.

The Mucho Macho Man’s historical relevance is dubious – 2013 winner Itsmyluckyday is the only one of eight winners to later win a graded stakes. Of course, Code of Honor finished fourth last year and later won two Grade 1’s, so be careful to knock. And look for Chance It to be tough Feb. 1 when he stretches back out in the Grade 3 Holy Bull.

It’s early in the year to cement an opinion on a 3-year-old. Lots will change as the season unfolds, including the comeback by Dennis’ Moment on Feb. 29 at Gulfstream and the upcoming debut of highly regarded Exaulted at Santa Anita.

Meantime, who is better – Authentic or Chance It?

Chance It battled harder, ran faster, beat a better field, and has won 4 of 6. Authentic was handed victory on a lone-speed silver platter, in the second start of his career, while green as grass through the lane.

Chance It is better than Authentic. For now. Authentic is just getting started.