Free: California Chrome can make his own trip

California Chrome has held top form all spring and reportedly thrived at Belmont Park. His six straight wins at four different tracks include the Santa Anita Derby, Kentucky Derby, and Preakness Stakes. His tactical speed all but ensures another comfortable trip positioned close to an expected soft pace. From post 2, he will produce speed.

California Chrome is the class of the crop, with speed figures consistently fastest in the field. The knock is price. California Chrome is listed at 3-5. The last time the Belmont winner paid less than even money was Affirmed, the 1978 Triple Crown winner. Since then, 11 Derby-Preakness winners have lost the Belmont.

Thankfully, bettors seeking value have an appealing option – the Derby runner-up is 15-1 on the Belmont line. Commanding Curve is not the most probable winner but is the most probable overlay. He ran super in finishing second in the slow-paced Derby. The pace did not help closers, yet Commanding Curve rallied from next to last, produced an extended run through the far turn, lost ground into the lane, and missed by less than two lengths.

If the Belmont pace unfolds more quickly than expected, Commanding Curve has a longshot chance from off the pace.

::DRF Live: Get real-time reports from Belmont Park each morning

A fast horse new to the Triple Crown series is the lightly raced Tonalist. He trounced his opposition in the Grade 2 Peter Pan Stakes over a sloppy Belmont track in just his fourth start, earned a triple-digit Beyer, has improved with each start, and will be positioned near the lead in a race that might unfold at a soft clip. Can a horse win the Belmont in just the fifth start of his career? It happened in 2009 (Summer Bird). The uncertainty regarding Tonalist is how much the mud moved him up in the Peter Pan.

General a Rod might be the unluckiest horse in the 2014 Triple Crown. A pace-presser, he was shuffled and lost all chance in the Derby, finishing 11th. His Preakness effort was similar – shuffled and checked, he re-rallied to finish a better-than-it-looked fourth. One of these days, he will get a clean trip, and his ability will be evident. If he avoids trouble, he should be forwardly placed.

Ride On Curlin, the runner-up in the Preakness, will motor from the back. He gave California Chrome a brief scare turning for home in the Preakness. It was only brief. Wicked Strong is a viable threat from the back. The decisive winner of the Wood Memorial, his closing rally was somewhat negated by the slow pace in the Kentucky Derby.

Samraat is one of four front-runners/pace-pressers, along with Chrome, General a Rod, and Tonalist. Most others seem to be merely taking a shot in hopes that the favorite misfires.