Free: Breeders' Cup pick five for Saturday, Oct. 31

Pick five, what pick five? The most probable winner of Breeders’ Cup 2015 runs in race on 3 Saturday at Keeneland, effectively transforming the early pick five into a pick four.

The handicapping challenge is finding the two winners before Songbird in the Juvenile Fillies, and the two after. It will not be easy. Songbird is the race-3 “free square” in the 50-cent wager on races 1-5, but the four other races are deep.

:: See Brad Free’s pick five play in DRF TicketMaker and bet it with DRF Bets

It’s an all-stakes sequence – race 1 is a sprint for 3-year-olds; race 2 is a sprint for 2-year-olds; race 3 is Songbird in the BC Juvenile Fillies; race 4 is the BC Turf Sprint; and race 5 is the BC Filly & Mare Sprint.

Of course, Songbird could lose the Juvenile Fillies. If so, the pick-five ticket structured below will be dead. Songbird is the no-backup single in race 3. As for other races, here goes:

Race 1, Perryville Stakes

Post time is 11 a.m. Eastern for the $100,000 Perryville Stakes, a six-furlong race for 3-year-olds. Comebacker MAJESTIC AFFAIR (9) has a history of firing fresh – debut winner, comeback winner last fall, comeback winner in winter. He is 3 for 3 fresh, with Beyer Figures in the 90s. Majestic Affair is a single (A).

The backups (B's) include favorite LEWYS VAPORIZER (2). His dominating win last out in a Parx allowance was validated when two behind him returned to win highly rated races. HEBBRONVILLE (1) is an off-the-pace threat. LORD COMMANDER (3) defeated older last out in convincing fashion.

Race 2, Juvenile Dirt Sprint

Wesley Ward entered three in the $100,000 Juvenile Dirt Sprint at six furlongs, including two fillies. BANREE (6) won big over the track. She is a sibling to promising California filly Gloryzapper. MOMENT IS RIGHT (7) won a stakes at Belmont in spring, and then misfired in July. This is her comeback. Ward also starts favorite SHEIKH OF SHEIKHS (4), who drops and shortens up from a Grade 1 route.

The Ward trainees are A's, along with route-to-sprint, turf-to-dirt longshot TWIRLING CINNAMON (8).

The seven others in the Juvenile Dirt Sprint are B's.

Race 3, Juvenile Fillies

Undefeated after three starts, SONGBIRD (10) is a single in the Juvenile Fillies. No backups.

Race 4, Turf Sprint

Now it gets tough. The Turf Sprint is a puzzle. PURE SENSATION (1) is 3 for 3 in turf sprints, his numbers are fast, and he has speed to establish position inside. He is this handicapper’s top choice and a must-use. NO SILENT (9) won a Grade 3 last out in impressive style; he is a threat from just off the pace. Those two are A's.

Four others are B's. They are the fast UNDRAFTED (3), favorite LADY SHIPMAN (5), closer GREEN MASK (7) and speedster MONGOLIAN SATURDAY (14).

Race 5, Filly and Mare Sprint

The Filly and Mare Sprint includes an appealing 10-1 shot. DAME DOROTHY (2) is a seven-furlong specialist whose 4-for-5 record at the trip includes a Grade 1 win. Her most recent third was better than her past performances look (off slow, bottled up early).

The favorite CAVORTING (14) is 5 for 5 at seven furlongs or less, but 3-year-olds have fared poorly in this race – 0 for 24. That includes four beaten favorites (La Traviata, sixth in 2007; Indian Blessing, second ’08; Champagne d’Oro, fourth ’10; and Turbulent Descent, fifth ’11).

Is it a statistical fluke? It could be. Cavorting might mow them all down. This pick five ticket will double the race. Dame Dorothy and Cavorting both are A's.

How to put it all together? The TicketMaker strategy outlined here allows for one B winner; the all-A's ticket will be played twice.

The total play is $70.

The numbers:

Race 1: A = 9 / B's = 1, 2, 3

Race 2: A's = 4, 6, 7, 8 / B's = 1, 2, 3, 5, 9, 10, 11

Race 3: 10

Race 4: A's = 1, 9 / B's = 3, 5, 7, 14

Race 5: 2, 14

The tickets:

9 / 4, 6, 7, 8 / 10 / 1, 9 / 2, 14 = $8, play twice = $16

1, 2, 3 / 4, 6, 7 8 / 10 / 1, 9 / 2, 14 = $24

9 / 1, 2, 3, 5, 9, 10, 11 / 10 / 1, 9 / 2, 14 = $14

9 / 4, 6, 7, 8 / 10 / 3, 5, 7, 14 / 2, 14 = $16