Free: For the best Sunday stakes value, head to Tampa Bay Downs

Regardless of who wins stakes races at Santa Anita and Aqueduct on Sunday, the $2 win payoffs probably will not amount to much more than a hill of beans.

That’s the problem with short fields. Payoffs are so low the parimutuel reward for being right does not compensate for the many times we are wrong.

For bettors to make money, winners must pay for losers. It seldom happens in races such as the six-runner Santana Mile, race 8 at Santa Anita, or five-runner Haynesfield, race 7 at Aqueduct.

I like the favorites – Mastery and Fashionably Fast in the Santana Mile; My Boy Tate and Bankit in the Haynesfield. I also like burgers and fries. Hardly unique opinions.

But the Pleasant Acres Stallions Distaff Turf, race 10 at Tampa Bay Downs, may offer value. Ten entered, including four top contenders. One might slip through the cracks.

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It’s what we look for – underrated contenders at overlay prices. In small fields this winter at Santa Anita – six runners or less in 30 percent of the races – overlays are tough to find. To illustrate, Santa Anita median win payoffs, as of March 21, are listed below.

Field size Median $2 payoff

4 3.30

5 4.60

6 5.80

7 7.60

8 8.90

9 8.50

10 12.40

11 17.20

12 19.60

Small fields generate small payoffs. Big fields, bigger payoffs. Nonetheless, it is fine for bettors to fool around with Sunday stakes at Santa Anita and Aqueduct for entertainment purposes. Betting can be fun, even when fields are small and value is elusive.

But the value on Sunday is at Tampa Bay Downs, where average field size is 8.8 per race for the six Florida-bred stakes, including the 10-runner Distaff Turf. Let’s go cross-country.

Santana Mile

Edwin Maldonado is a speed jockey, riding Ax Man for the first time. The presence of Maldonado on Ax Man seems to insure a legitimate pace. That would benefit trainer Bob Baffert’s second starter, the sharp late-runner Mastering. Tag team.

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Mastering has won three straight races, though he runs as if he wants more than a mile. But with stablemate Ax Man pushing the pace, Mastering will have a fair shot to give Baffert another Santana Mile victory. He has won five of the last eight editions.

Fashionably Fast is a five-time stakes winner whose latest win was flattered when third-place Brandothebartender returned to win. In the past-performance company line for Fashionably Fast, Brandothebartender is italicized, which indicates he won his next start.

Mastering is the pick over Fashionably Fast. Either way, the payoff will be modest and wagers would be just for fun.

Haynesfield

Bankit is a beast at two turns, less effective in one-turn races such as the Haynesfield. The last time Bankit met My Boy Tate, racing seven furlongs in November at Aqueduct, My Boy Tate got the jump and finished two lengths in front of Bankit.

The challenge for My Boy Tate on Sunday is the mile distance. His lifetime past performances in Formulator show he has raced beyond seven furlongs four times, with his best finish a second against maidens. At seven furlongs or less, My Boy Tate is 8 for 18.

In a close call between two last-out winners – Bankit won routing, My Boy Tate won sprinting – the call is the speed. My Boy Tate, again, for the sake of action.

Pleasant Acres Stallions Distaff Turf

Stake winners Beautiful Lover and Summering return as the class of the field. Neither has started since last year, but both run well fresh and earned speed figures fast enough for this statebred race. The knock is likely low odds.

Two former claiming runners provide major challenges, with less notoriety. Crown and Sugar is a 14-time winner; Sugar Fix has won seven.

Crown and Sugar won the Distaff Turf at age 4 in 2019, and perhaps she has lost a step at 6. But her versatile style should lead to a cozy, pressing trip, trainer Darien Rodriguez is holding a hot hand, and Antonio Gallardo is the meet’s leading grass rider. Meanwhile, Sugar Fix has lost her last two as the favorite.

The play at Tampa is the likely price – Crown and Sugar for a mild upset at 4-1 or higher.

Red-board review

Jetovator was pounded to 1.90-1 last Sunday in the Sensational Star at Santa Anita. The salvation for his loss is he was only playable at 5-2 or higher. Sometimes the best bet is no bet. Jetovator was a perfect example of a “pass.” He set the pace and finished fourth.

A second selection Sunday at Santa Anita was a moonshot in the ninth race. I was right that 30-1 Sky Confidential might not beat Honos Man. But boy was I also wrong. Honos Man and Sky Confidential finished seventh and eighth, respectively.