Free: Belmont Oaks might end up battle of Euros
Before the Saratoga summer meet begins July 14, and Del Mar on July 22, there is plenty to catch up with. Time to dive in . . .
Early Belmont Oaks lean
Betting the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks Invitational ultimately hinges on price, but for now, European shippers Concert Hall and With The Moonlight pique interest. Concert Hall is not quite top class, but her similarities to 2018 Oaks winner Athena ($22.80) are conspicuous. Athena arrived from Ireland off a distant third in the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes at The Curragh. Concert Hall likewise was defeated in the Pretty Polly and has the same trainer-jockey combo as Athena – Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore. However, at only 3-1 on the morning line set by David Aragona, Concert Hall seems like an underlay. As for With The Moonlight, her trainer, Charlie Appleby, is 13 for 27 in Grade 1 races in North America. With The Moonlight finished last in a Group 1 in her most recent start, but ran super two back in a listed stakes. She is listed at a tempting 6-1 under Frankie Dettori.
‘Strait’ to the winner’s circle?
It’s fun to handicap stakes races before nominations close. There is nothing to lose. Often for race-day bettors, there is little to gain. That may be the case July 24 in the Wickerr Stakes at Del Mar. The turf mile may include top turf miler Smooth Like Strait, who is surprisingly eligible. The $100,000 Wickerr is restricted to nonwinners of a $50,000 stakes at a mile or longer since Sept. 1. Smooth Like Strait, a millionaire Grade 1 winner, has five seconds and a third in graded stakes since his last win, in May 2021. The Breeders’ Cup Mile runner-up in fall, Smooth Like Strait could have a successful season at age 5.
“It’s almost like he’s better this year than he’s ever been,” trainer Michael McCarthy said.
Despite a shortage of wins, Smooth Like Strait would be a low-odds class standout in the Wickerr.
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Numbers no guarantee of win
Speaking of stakes nominations, 10 of the 14 Diana Stakes nominees are trained by Chad Brown. That does not necessarily mean the Grade 1 on July 16 at Saratoga is a slam dunk for Brown, whose three top nominees seem to be Grade 1/Group 1 winners Bleecker Street (undefeated), Regal Glory, and Rougir. Brown’s five-year Diana win streak ended last summer when Appleby-trained Althiqa won the filly-mare turf race. Appleby is expected to return with Group 2 winner Creative Flair, while Brendan Walsh-trained Ocean Road gets an acid test after upsetting the Grade 1 Gamely at Santa Anita.
Flightline punches in for work
It’s back to work already for Flightline. The undefeated Met Mile winner is scheduled to breeze a half-mile Saturday at Santa Anita, his first workout since the June 11 dazzler at Belmont Park. This will be the quickest (28 days) Flightline has worked back after a start.
“He’ll have a couple little works here before he goes down to Del Mar,” trainer John Sadler said from Santa Anita this week.
Next stop, the Grade 1 Pacific Classic on Sept. 3.
Prepping to face top dog
Few shippers, if any, are likely to tackle Flightline in the Pacific Classic, but a handful of California locals could walk the plank, including several who will run first in the local prep race, the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap on July 30 at Del Mar.
Tripoli, the 2021 Pacific Classic winner, is a “go” for the San Diego; his Pacific Classic status is uncertain because he has the same owner and trainer as Flightline. San Diego contenders include Defunded and Parnelli. Grade 1-placed Defunded worked a bullet half on July 4 at Santa Anita; Parnelli scored an impressive second-level allowance win last out. San Diego nominations close July 21.
Ce Ce faces tall task to repeat
It’s not easy to win the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint once, much less twice. That is the challenge facing 2021 winner Ce Ce, whose romp in the Grade 2 Princess Rooney at Gulfstream Park gives her a fees-paid berth for the Filly and Mare Sprint at Keeneland.
Groupie Doll won the Filly and Mare Sprint back to back in 2012-13; seven others missed trying to repeat, including odds-on Ventura in 2009 and Gamine last year. Other Filly and Mare Sprint winners who missed the following year: Informed Decision, Musical Romance, Judy the Beauty, Wavell Avenue, and Finest City.
As for Ce Ce, she could target the Grade 1 Ballerina Stakes on Aug. 28 at Saratoga, where Bella Sofia, Frank’s Rockette, and Lady Rocket could be among her challengers in a summer preview of the 2022 Filly and Mare Sprint.
Becca Taylor has more to give
This is not to besmirch Becca Taylor, whose victory in the Grade 2 Great Lady M. Stakes on July 4 at Los Alamitos was her ninth from 10 starts. But for the record, the 85 Beyer Speed Figure by Becca Taylor was the lowest in the nine-year Los Alamitos history of the Great Lady M.
Some may question if the fig should be higher. But raw fast times (1:15.25 for 6 1/2 furlongs) are normal for Los Alamitos, and 85 is typical for Becca Taylor. She could face Edgeway in the Grade 3 Rancho Bernardo on Aug. 28 at Del Mar, and you’d have to give Edgeway the edge over Becca Taylor and Smash Ticket, who runs Saturday at Belmont.
Know this about Becca Taylor – she can be fast. She earned a 93 in her previous start. In her only loss, by a nose on turf, she pulled herself up after having it won in deep stretch.
Gulfport puts up big fig
For what it’s worth, the speed figure earned by Gulfport was the highest by a Bashford Manor Stakes winner in 20 years. Gulfport won the July 4 juvenile stakes at Churchill Downs by more than 12 lengths with a 91 Beyer. Lone Star Sky earned a 95 when he won the Bashford Manor in 2002. Gulfport’s figure is second-highest this season by a 2-year-old, and at this stage all it means is he is really fast. Gee, no kidding.
Ellingwood doing job for Sadler
A quietly productive trainer-jockey combo is John Sadler and Emily Ellingwood.
“Horses like her; they like running for her,” Sadler said. “We’ve had nothing but good luck with her.”
Sadler and Ellingwood are 8 for 17 the past year. They have won three straight together, including a Los Alamitos allowance on Saturday.
In January, a Sadler trainee jumped track marks and unseated Ellingwood in deep stretch and kept her sidelined for two months.
“I basically dove head first,” she said. “But I came out of it stronger and am looking forward to the future.”
The 27-year-old Ellingwood, who claims a seven-pound allowance, has won 33 Thoroughbred races and has a live one Friday at Los Alamitos – Liberalism in race 3 for trainer Brian Koriner.
Electric Lettuce on fire
Recommended viewing for those who appreciate pure speed and clever race calls: a replay of race 1 at Golden Gate Fields on June 11, won by blazingly fast 2-year-old filly Electric Lettuce. By speed stallion Straight Fire, she lit up early, won geared down, and faces boys Saturday in the $75,000 Everett Nevin Stakes at Pleasanton.
Electric Lettuce’s slow post-race work, three furlongs in a mellow 40.20 seconds, was due to a loose horse that required her rider take hold. Trainer Blaine Wright said the filly’s subsequent five-furlong drill in 1:01.60 was sharp. The filly, owned and bred by LNJ Foxwoods, could be gone Saturday in the Nevin.
As for the hemp-hint race call of her debut, Golden Gate announcer Matt Dinerman nailed it in deep stretch, saying Electric Lettuce “smoked ’em.”
Close enough to perfect
An unlucky misstep by an odds-on favorite prevented Daily Racing Form handicapper Steve Andersen from sweeping the card July 2 at Pleasanton. Andersen was 8 for 9 with DRF top choices, and his only loss was in the $75,000 Oak Tree Sprint. Race favorite Howbeit stumbled, lost his rider, and ended Andersen’s bid for a perfect card.
For what it’s worth, Andersen’s best bet Friday at Pleasanton is in race 2 – Away From the Sun.
Big Switch turned off for a bit
Big Switch’s big summer ended early. After her romp in the $150,000 Melair Stakes on May 28 at Santa Anita, Big Switch underwent arthroscopic surgery for an ankle chip and is out 60 days. She will miss the $175,000 Fleet Treat for California-bred 3-year-old fillies at Del Mar.
The prognosis is good for Big Switch, owned by breeder George Krikorian and trained by John Sadler. A 3-for-5 Mr. Big filly, Big Switch has her best races still ahead.
In the Fleet Treat on July 28, who do you like – Connie Swingle or Fun to Dream?
Nose is as good as a mile
Midnight Somewhere ($3.40) needed every inch of the long Los Alamitos stretch to wear down the pacesetter and win a claiming sprint by a desperate nose July 2. Afterward, someone kidded trainer Dean Pederson for cutting it so close with an odds-on favorite. Pederson’s droll reply: “That’s what you call training a horse to perfection.”
Donuts are the bomb
Bob Baffert has friends, and foes. Last weekend at Santa Anita, on his first morning back training after a 90-day suspension, Baffert sat down in the box seat where he regularly supervises works. Someone had left Baffert a gift – a pink box that appeared to be from a donut shop. Perhaps it was a trap. Before anyone reached for the box, Baffert’s wife, Jill, advised caution. Wait, she joked, and added, “Is the box ticking?” Turns out it was donuts.