With four turf sprints carded, upsets are expected

It rains on race day at Santa Anita as infrequently as a favorite wins a turf sprint, which is practically never.

The exaggerations will be tested Friday on an eight-race card with four turf sprints. Santa Anita officials believe the races will end before any rain begins, and early this week the forecast of a storm was lowered to a forecast for mere showers.

Rain is expected to arrive sometime soon. After all, January and February are the wettest months in dry Southern California. But the last time Santa Anita raced on surfaces other than fast and firm was 10 months ago, last March.

Wet weather was in the forecast when the Friday card was drawn, and racing secretary Chris Merz rolled the dice carding four turf sprints. Rain would necessitate moving the turf sprints to dirt, with scratches diminishing field size and wagering appeal. But the models shifted, the revised forecast is mild.

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“We’re taking a little bit of a gamble on Friday,” Merz said early this week, explaining the decision to card four turf sprints. “It looks like most of the rain will start probably after the races.”

Dry is crucial for turf sprints. The new backstretch chute starts on turf, crosses the main track, and then joins the main turf oval. If the dirt gets wet, turf sprints must move to dirt, or the card gets canceled.

Santa Anita has postponed or canceled because of rain, and also due to smoke from fires. Neither is likely Friday. The forecast is normal. What is not normal is the curious streak of losing favorites.

Favorites are 0 for 15 in turf sprints at six furlongs since Jan. 2, during which time the median win payoff ballooned to $19. Favorites are 0 for 5 in turf sprints at 6 1/2 furlongs, since the start of the meet.

It might be statistical gibberish. Races 1, 4, and 8 on Friday are six furlongs on turf. Race 6 is 6 1/2 furlongs on turf. In the $40,000 claiming opener, veteran New York shipper Kitten’s Cat seeks his first California victory since he won the 2016 Juvenile Turf Sprint at Santa Anita. His rivals include Via Egnatia and Mystery Messenger.

Race 4 is for California-bred maiden 3-year-olds. Bob Daniels adds blinkers, Lasix, and tries turf following a fourth-place debut. His bullet work Jan. 15 suggests a wake-up. Though sired by Race Day, whose progeny tend to prefer dirt, Bob Daniels was produced by a mare who won three turf races. Other entrants include Lil Ricardo and Standing O.

Race 7 is a dirt sprint for the same division, California-bred maiden 3-year-olds. The race marks the second start for well-regarded Found My Ball and debut runner-up Va Va Vegas.

Race 6, a starter allowance for filly-mare turf sprinters, is a scramble that includes also-eligible Ellie Arroway, last-out allowance winner Constantia, comebacker Rather Nosy, and speedster Anonymously. Race 8, a $25,000 claiming nonwinners-of-two lifetime turf sprint, includes speedy Hartel, One Flew South and also-eligible Zipper Mischief.

Although five of the last eight turf sprints were won by the pacesetter, the profile could shift when the temporary rails move to the outermost 30-foot setting on Friday. All four rails-at-30 turf sprints this meet were won from the middle or back of the field.