Fornatale: Saratoga pick three play for Sunday, Aug. 2
Holy maidens, Batman! Sunday’s Saratoga card features four maiden special weight events. Between that fact and the expected good weather, this is a card I’ll be excited to see in person. In maiden races, I’m a big believer in doing the preparatory trainer/pedigree work on paper, but then also consulting the workout reports, following the money, and doing my own paddock inspection before making a final decision.
That said, there is one maiden I know I want to play, and I’ll use her to kick off a pick three play starting in race 2.
Race 2
This is a maiden special weight going six furlongs on the dirt for 2-year-old fillies. The one I’m interested in is BIG WORLD (#1). I have a big trip note on her debut, in which she broke a half-step slowly, rushed up wide, advanced position, and galloped out well. Formulator indicates trainer Tony Dutrow is 6 for 10 with his recent 2-year-olds going out for the second time on the Saratoga dirt (Nick Tammaro), suggesting she’ll improve on what already was a sneaky-good debut.
The other reason for this play is the presence of Rachel’s Valentina, the first foal to make it to the races out of the great Rachel Alexandra, whom I loved. I’m not going to say she can’t win, but it’s never a great sign when the trainer starts making excuses before the race, and she is certain to be over-bet. I’ll be leaving her off my tickets (forgive me, Rachel).
I’ll also use some backups here – full disclosure, these may change based on further information but I’ll tweet my final choices via @loomsboldly. At the moment, AWESOME DAME (#6), who beat the top pick, and TALE FOR RUBY (#8), with a sweet-looking work tab, are in.
Race 3
The Caress is a 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint stake for fillies and mares on the turf. I’m going to keep it simple here and go with the old “fastest horse in the race” angle. That would be FREE AS A BIRD (#3), who looked like the best female turf sprinter in the country last year when she went on an undefeated run that included winning this race in visually impressive fashion.
That day, she finished just ahead of JEWEL OF A CAT (#1), who re-opposes here. Jewel of a Cat got a good trip last year, but she figures to be controlling speed this time around. I’ll cover myself by using her, but I’ll press the combos with Free as a Bird, who I believe is a more likely winner.
Race 4
This is a fun first-level allowance for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles on turf. My top one is TIDE IS HIGH (#7), and not just because I’m big fan of both Blondie and The Paragons.
She’s run well enough on dirt, finishing third in a key race first out (top four including this one have all come back to win) and whistling in the slop last time. Will she turf?
Using the Formulator pedigree tool, you can see that her dam, Reef Bay, won her debut turf race at first asking – plus over the years I’ll throw in almost every first-turfer with Danzig in the listed pedigree. As for the distance, Jonathan Sheppard is nicknamed “the Master” for a reason: He can be trusted to place his charges correctly. According to Formulator, in Saratoga flat races over the past five years, he’s 10 for 73 with a $2.97 return on investment. She could break on top and be gone.
Since we’re pretty skinny in this sequence, we can use some backups as well. They’ll include the obvious favorite HOPE CROSS (#6), as well as a couple of trip horses, LUCKNOW (#1), who ran well with traffic as a bomberoo in stakes last time, and ACHNAHA (#4), who checked and came wide last time before galloping out well. The latter gets the switch to hot-riding John Velazquez today.
The play
$1 pick three 1, 6, 8 with 1, 3 with 1, 4, 6, 7 ($12)
$2 pick three 1 with 1, 3 with 1, 4, 6, 7 ($8)
$2 pick three 1, 6, 8 with 1 3 with 7 ($8)
$1 Ppick three 1, 6, 8 with 3 with 1, 4, 6, 7 ($12)
$10 pick three 1 with 3 with 7 ($10)