Fornatale: Saratoga pick four for Sunday, Aug. 16

Not too many of the pick four sequences at the meet have been to my liking. Often there have been three pretty good races with one I haven't liked for one reason or another. But Sunday's sequence looks intriguing, and I am going to take a swing. I will put in a traditional ABC play through DRF Formulator and will look to press certain combinations as well.

Race 7

A first-level allowance for 3-year-olds going 1 1/8 miles on grass. I'll use three here. DREAMING OF GOLD (#7) won at this distance two back and ran OK in his first start of this meet Aug. 1. He could be poised for a step forward as well – it's his second start off the bench, and he has an improving speed-figure pattern. I don't want to stand alone with him at a short price, but in addition to the listed Ticketmaker plays, I will press his number some because this could be a chalky sequence.

WEEKEND EXPRESS (#5) has a couple of races that would make him competitive in here, the starter allowance win three back and the maiden win where you can upgrade that raw speed figure because he was wide throughout. The 15-1 on the morning line would be a juicy proposition and makes him an A for me.

TIZ TOWN (#3) has improved since the front wraps came off and took a significant figure jump last time. I'm inclined to use for a little.

As: 5, 7
Bs: None
Cs: 3

Race 8

A first-level allowance for statebred fillies going one mile on the inner turf. There is a lot of pace here, and that should be just what the doctor ordered for ACK NAUGHTY (#4), who is a double-flow upgrade in my notes (that is, she's been stuck twice in a row closing in races where front-runners had a distinct advantage). I'm singling.

As: 4
Bs: None
Cs: None

Race 9

The Grade 2 Saratoga Special, a 6 1/2-furlong spring for 2-year-olds on dirt. I didn't love how SARATOGA MISCHIEF (#5) looked in the paddock for his debut, and apparently neither did anyone else as this Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez first-time starter, who was 5-2 on the morning line, went off at 6-1. He prevailed by a neck and comes back relatively quick, but he still looks like the fastest horse in the race and should get a good trip.

EXAGGERATOR (#1) might be better than his speed figures suggest. He had trouble getting a run and came very wide, showing class late.
The Mark Casse barn has shown some signs of life of late, and HOLDING GOLD (#2) looks live. His tape is visually impressive, he's bred for dirt, and his work tab suggests he's thrived since arriving at Saratoga.

Graham Motion isn't known for his success with 2-year-old dirt horses, but that's partially why MID LIFE CRISIS (#6) is interesting. I trust this barn to pick the right spots. He's light on figures but has tactical speed and gets a great outside draw.

As: 1, 5
Bs: 2
Cs: 6

Race 10

A maiden special weight for 2-year-old fillies going 1 1/16 miles on turf. While most trainers struggle statistically when it comes to getting horses who can win first out on the grass, this is a club Chad Brown clearly has in his bag. GREY STARK (#5) looks live. The pedigree is there as well – Amansara, her dam, was a stakes winner on turf who has dropped two winners.

Here's an angle I like: In the second start, a runner who took money first out but did nothing in that race. The zero Beyer Speed Figure might keep some away, but ADOPT A KITTEN (#1) is probably better than that. I don't need her in vertical exotics if she's hammered, but I'm using her in the pick four.

CLAIRE'S JOY (#9) has a cool pedigree for 2-year-old turf success, being by Kitten's Joy and out of a Carson City mare who is a producer (four winners from four foals to race).

As of this writing, Michael Matz is still on the duck for the meeting, but that's not likely to continue. AFTERNOON (#3) is a well-bred longshot worth including.

As: 5
Bs: 1, 9
Cs: 3

:: See Peter Fornatale's pick four in DRF TicketMaker, and bet it with DRF Bets.