Fornatale: Saratoga early pick five for Saturday, July 29

It’s a fun-looking card at Saratoga on Saturday, with appearances from the Derby and Preakness winners in the Jim Dandy as well as a pair of other intriguing stakes races on tap. Wagering-wise, I’m going to start with the early pick five.

In Race 1, the two runners with the best workouts also look best to me on paper; #5 MOJOVATION has a strong, consistent local work tab (always a plus), a sire with solid win-early numbers (13 percent), and a lone sibling (Mkubwa) who won impressively first out. The trainer does OK with firsters as well. #3 BOURBON RESOLUTION is also a use for me, and not just because of the catchy name. This colt hit the ground running for Ian Wilkes, a trainer whose charges often need a race. Improvement from that run could find him in the winner’s circle.

Race 2 is the trickiest in the sequence. There’s a lot of pace signed on here, and that can lead to chaotic results. Because I’m skinny elsewhere in this sequence, I’m going to spread here.

My “A” runners are #1 PERRO ROJO/#1A ROLLIN SMOKE, whom TimeformUS has rated as the best and second-best closers; #2 SURPRISE TWIST, who also showed good late kick last time; and #8 HIEROGLYPHICS, who might be better coming from farther back than he tried to do last time.

I’ll also use backups here, including #3 PAGLIACCI, #4 CASSES STORY, #6 PAINTER’S RAGS, and #7 CAPITAINE. And I’ll even throw in the two Mike Maker runners, #10 BENEFACTOR and #11 HEMBREE. You’ll notice I’m leaving out the morning-line favorite, Master Merion. If he wins stretching out with this seemingly unfavorable pace scenario, so be it.

In Race 3, I’ll look to get out with just two “A” runners, #3 KIRBY’S PENNY and #7 PICO CHICK. Nothing clever here, just hoping these two control the race from the front and one of them goes on with it.

For Race 4, I’ll get spread once again, including #1 BETA MAX (the dam has produced four winners from four starters, including Lady Shipman), #2 ULTIMA D (I think she’ll improve for the surface switch and gets a few pounds in the weights against her male rivals), #3 EL DULCE (just an obvious use off connections and works), and #7 MAJESTIC DUNHILL. The latter is a trainer-angle play. According to DRF Formulator, over the past five years with 2-year-olds on turf at the Spa, George Weaver is 8 for 30, with 14 in-the-money finishes and a $4.92 ROI.

For Race 5, the plan is to single #2 COAL FRONT and move on. This Todd Pletcher trainee has run two massive races and might even be better than the raw speed figures suggest. The form of the maiden win was strong, and several of the rivals he’s faced have come back to improve their speed figures.

The bets:
$0.50: 3, 5 with 1, 2, 8 with 3, 7 with 1-3, 7 with 2 ($24)
$0.50: 3, 5 with 1-4, 6-8, 10, 11 with 3, 7 with 1-3, 7 with 2 ($72)