Fornatale: How I’m playing Saratoga on Wednesday, July 29

After a fun four-day appetizer, the meal that is Saratoga continues Wednesday – which in the old days would have been opening day. There’s plenty of interesting racing on the card, but I’m not the type of player to try to play – or even handicap – every race on a single card. It’s simply too much of a bandwidth drain, especially during a long meet like this one.

Instead, I’ll pick my spots on Wednesday’s card, starting in the opener, a jump race. Many handicappers disdain the jump racing at Saratoga, and I’ve never fully understood why. Steeplechase racing has a rich tradition at Saratoga, and the races can be fun to watch and handicap. If nothing else, they provide something different a few times a meet. If you disagree, hey, that’s cool – there’s another race coming up in 33 minutes.

Race 1: The problem with doing a lot of replay work in jump races is you can spend half your day on one race. That said, the trip CUL BAIRE (#9) had last time is worth a gander. It’s not so much the obvious trouble where he gets shut off turning for home as much as how little he was able to show his run throughout the prep race. I’m expecting better things from him here based on his nice score at Fair Hill back in May and his generally square European form. I’ll be backing him to win and place.

Race 4: This year’s running of the Honorable Miss features a short field and shapes as a match race between two very talented and obvious contenders. I don’t see much separating LA VERDAD (#3) and JUDY THE BEAUTY (#4). The former has a potential pace edge, the latter has a distinct class edge. I won’t blame anybody who elects to pass this race, but it’s a graded stakes at Saratoga, so I want to get involved. I’ll use the two obvious ones going forward in doubles, and I’ll weight those doubles if one or the other gets hammered.

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Race 5: This is the pay leg for the aforementioned double, a starter allowance for 3-year old fillies going 1 1/16 miles on the turf. With a confirmed front-runner and a couple of stretchout sprinters signed on, I’m envisioning a hot pace. My top choice is MORETHANAWARNING (#10), who ran one of her best races up here and who could be rounding into form, coming out of a race that flowed in favor of the front-runners.

I also thought YES FOR SUCCESS (#4) was compromised by race flow last time. She’s worth another look, especially if the 6-1 morning line accurate. It’s not that I hate the favorites here per se, I’m just not interested in trusting them at shorter numbers in this spot.

I’ll use those two in doubles, weighting the combinations as the probables merit. In the unlikely event I’m busted after the first leg, I’ll win bet those two as well.

Race 8: I’ll sit out the sixth and seventh and come back with my final play of the day, a double across the eighth and ninth. In the eighth, a statebred first-level allowance going nine furlongs on the turf, I’m going to get a little chalky on you.

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My top pick is OKLAHOMA DEN (#9) for Saratoga’s favorite son, Chuck Simon. He’s been running well enough against open company and he’s back with his friends here. Jockey Jose Lezcano has been riding with confidence, and I’m hoping he’ll make the right moves here, keeping this son of Utopia close enough to the action to pounce when the real running starts.

BATTLE OF EVERMORE (#4) has run on the grass before but never for Chad Brown, and he’s liable to improve coming out of two solid tries in the New York-bred triple crown series. He’s getting weight from his elders and could be overbet but must be included – and not just because I’m a big of both Led Zeppelin and J.R.R. Tolkein.

He’s probably too cheap, but I will take a little backup flier with ALL OVER ME (#3) with the thought that he’s won here before, could be loose, and surely ought to be a big price. In Irad we trust.

Race 9: My day ends with this optional claimer at a mile on the turf. Maybe, just maybe, the obvious favorites on the outside can hook up early here and set it up for a price to come in.

MR. ONLINE (#2) should save all the ground and has figures and form that aren’t far off what it might take to win this. His trainer, Michael Pino, won with Wallyanna here a year ago at a million-to-one in the Hall of Fame. I’m using.

SLIP BY (#4) is a form play. He was right there with Sky Flight last time and will be a multiple of that one’s price here, I think. The only bad race in his last four came on soft turf. Trainer Michael Matz has been having a slow year, but he’s been known to pop at Saratoga.

The last I’ll use is FRONT (#6). The form of his last two races is actually pretty strong. Every runner in the last came back to run the same or an improved Beyer Speed Figure next out, and the Kingston was a super live race: the top three have all come back to win, and King Kreesa looks like a major divisional player off his last two graded stakes wins. Trainer Jimmy Jerkens excels with these types of layoff horses as well. According to DRF Formulator, over the past five years on the NYRA circuit, his horses coming back between 31-60 days show a flat-bet profit with 195 starters in the sample.

I hope to be alive in doubles to all three, in weighted combinations. If I’m not, I’ll use the tote board to guide me on win bets. Triple win bets can be tricky, but if the top two choices get properly hammered at the windows, perhaps this is a place where that might even make sense.

Godspeed to all athletes, equine and human, and Happy Saratoga!