Fornatale: How I'll play Saratoga on Sunday, Aug. 26, 2018

I’m going to combat my Travers hangover – which is both literal and figurative – with a play in the double connecting the eighth and ninth races.

In race 8, it might be as simple as #6 PROVEN RESERVES, and I’m going to try to not overthink it. His attributes are plain to see as he’s got the fastest numbers in the race. He’s lightly raced and improving, methodically making his way through his conditions. If there’s a question about him, it might be today’s expected pace scenario. He’s come from off the pace in his three wins, and it doesn’t seem like there’s all that much speed to set up for a closer today.

I’m going to bet him anyway because I feel like the way he’s stayed on strongly late in all three starts suggests he has the ability to be a bit closer and still have enough in the tank to hold off the horses behind him. Let’s see if he can’t stalk and pounce for the win.

In race 9, I’ll go two deep with #3 CHANTELINE and #4 FIRE KEY. Both have the ability to stick close enough to the early pace and finish, which is the trip I think will win this race. Chanteline ran well enough on the boggy turf last time, but her form and the visual impression she gives make me think she’s just as good, if not better, on firmer ground. She’s in form and dangerous.

Fire Key requires some creativity, but the last two races are tosses: off turf last time and soft turf two back. Her previous local form puts her in the mix at a big number.

The bets for race 8:
$25 double 6 with 3
$10 double 6 with 4
Might come back with win money on the 3 and 4 in race 9.