Fornatale: How I'll play Saratoga for Sunday, Aug. 20, 2017

It’s a beautiful Sunday in Saratoga and the plan for me is to watch from afar for the first half of the card and make my way over for the second half. When you’re here for most of the meet, it’s not a bad idea to take the occasional half-day off.

As for my plays today, I’ll be focusing on the late Pick Three.

Race 8:

#9 MAGICIAN’S VANITY doesn’t like to win (note the 2-for-38 lifetime mark), but she should get a good setup in today’s race. She’s in good form, is well drawn and might be the best closer in a race where TimeformUS predicts a fast pace. Because of her lack of reliability, I’ll also include the obvious #2 WINNER’S DREAM, a dropper whose best Beyer Speed Figure was earned on turf, and #8 LILLIE’S ANSWER, who goes out for the always dangerous Mike Maker and fits on form and figures.

Race 9: I’ll use three in a race that appears devoid of early foot. #1 VERVE’S TALE should be forward breaking from the rail. She’s been facing a steady diet of graded stakes and should find this level more to her liking. #7 ANNIE ROCKS was the beaten favorite last time when claimed by Carlos Martin. That day she had an excuse – she raced wide on a track that favored inside speed. She’s an interesting item adding blinks for the new connections. #4 ROMANTIC VISION has had comically bad luck for Rusty Arnold, racing against the track on a consistent basis (when the rail has been bad, she’s been on it; when the rail has been good, she’s been wide). She reunites with Castellano, the last jock to win on her, and is a threat to improve.

Race 10: Can #2 ENASOIT maybe get loose with the bug rider up? At a morning line of 15-1, I’ll pay to find out. I’m not going to be a hero, however. I’ll also include #7 VENTRY BAY, who is back to turf sprinting (something he did well enough here last summer), and #4 STORMIN MACLEAN, who has more angles than a trapezoid: first off the claim for Linda Rice, and exiting a race with great form (four finishers from the last have come back to win) among them.

THE BETS:

There’s no future for a horseplayer simply boxing his or her top three choices in horizontal bets, so I’ll try to be clever in how I bet these combinations. I will start with something basic, however.

-- $1 Pick Three 2 8 9 with 1 4 7 with 2 4 7 ($27)

-- $4 Pick Three 2 8 with 1 4 7 with 4 7 ($48)

-- $1 Pick Three 9 with 1 4 7 with 2 4 7 ($9)

-- $1 Pick Three 2 8 9 with 1 4 7 with 2 ($9)

Total bet $94

Feel free to slide the amounts up or down according to your bankroll. I may also play around with the possible “value”-type horses, MAGICIAN’S VANITY and ENASOIT by backing to win and/or saving in exactas beneath the other horses listed above.

I’d channel my inner-Tom Durkin and tell you to have a great day at the Spa, but when the weather’s like this, who wouldn’t?