Fornatale: How I'll play Saratoga on Saturday, Aug. 5

It’s Whitney Stakes Day at Saratoga, and while it’s raining right now, things are expected to clear up by first post. We should have a cracking day of racing accompanied by mild weather. As for how I’m playing today, the plan is to sit chilly for the first part of the card and dig in when the stakes action begins in race 7 with the Lure and continue on through the Whitney itself.

Race 7: Any cut in the ground (and there should be some) would help the chances of #2 TAKEOVER TARGET. He’s been working well with the well-fancied Time Test and has shown some excellent late kick in his non-firm turf efforts.

I’ve long been a fan of #7 BLACKTYPE as well, and his last three runs are littered with pace and tactical excuses. His best races give him a major shot as well.

I see no reason to go crazy opposing the favorite, #1 PROJECTED. He’s the fastest of these and is well posted down inside. I’ll use him in exacta savers over the top two, and I’ll use all three in multirace plays. If Morticity should scratch, I’ll also use #12 MACAGONE on the thought that he could wire the field at a square price.

THE BETS: Double win bet on 2 and 7, with exacta savers 1 with 2, 7.

Race 8: Going to keep it simple here, using #10 AMERICAN GAL as a lone “A” in multirace bets for all the obvious reasons: She’s got the best form and figures and simply has the look of a Test winner. The undefeated #2 YOUR LOVE will be used as a backup. She’s got good positional speed and can finish. She was very game last time with a wide trip in a race from which three of her opponents have come back to win. Any residual moisture would only help her cause.

THE BETS: A weighted exacta box 10-2 to approximate the same return either way.

Race 9: You don’t need me to tell you that #6 GUN RUNNER is a very likely winner. But that doesn’t mean we can’t bet the race. The plan is to play him straight over #4 TU BRUTUS in exactas (with a small saver the other way). I’ll also play a trifecta with #5 KEEN ICE in third. In the picks, I’ll heavily weight the play to the No. 6, but I’ll play small just-in-case tickets with 4, 5 as well.

Here’s what I’m thinking for the pick three, with a total investment of $103 (scale up or down as suits your bankroll).
Race 7
$25 p3: 1 with 10 with 6 ($25)
$15 p3: 2, 7 with 10 with 6 ($30)
$10 p3: 1, 2, 7 with 2 with 6 ($30)
$2 p3: 1, 2, 7 with 10 with 4, 5 ($12)
$1 p3: 1, 2, 7 with 2 with 4, 5 ($6)