Fornatale: How I'll play Saratoga for Monday, Sept. 4, 2017

Incredibly, closing day at Saratoga is upon us. Unfortunately, what shaped up to be an awesome betting card now has many question marks in terms of how the surfaces will be playing. I’ll be watching the early races carefully for clues, but I don’t think I can resist putting in some Pick Threes that connect the two stakes races late in the card.

Race 7:

#2 TAKEOVER TARGET has done some of his best work on off going and he looks like a must-use to me in the Baruch. I prefer him to his uncoupled stablemate in this spot based on his ability to see out his races. I’ll also use #3 DELTA PRINCE, for whom the soft turf is a legitimate question mark. But I like how he’s been brought along slowly by Jimmy Jerkens and he might be ready for a prime-time effort from just off the pace.

Race 8:

The TimeformUS pace projector suggests that things will heat up on the front end. I’m hoping that will lead to good setups for #6 STYLE DRIFT and #7 BAREEQA, both of whom have good late kick. I’ll also throw in #11 B ROCKETT, who has a couple of solid efforts against open company and should enjoy the drop to facing New York-breds only.

Race 9:

In the Hopeful, I’m looking for someone to come off the pace and upset the apple cart at a number. My top pick is #8 FREE DROP BILLY, who ran well enough in the Sanford and impressed in the debut at Churchill with a visually impressive move. There’s plenty of talent here. I’ll also use the maiden, #7 GIVEMEAMINIT. He showed good late speed first out and shaped like one who wants more ground. He was also wide on a day when inside speed did very well. In addition to my horizontal plays, I’ll play an exacta with these two.

Pick Threes:

$5 Pick Three 2 3 with 6 7 11 with 7 8 ($60)

$2 Pick Three 2 3 with 6 7 with 7 8 ($16)

$2 Pick Three 2 3 with 6 7 11 with 8 ($12)