Fornatale: How I'll play Keeneland for Friday, April 6

The opening-day card at Keeneland, in Lexington, Ky., looks interesting, and I plan on focusing on the latter part in a pick three starting with race 7. It looks formful to me, but I’m hoping to beat morning-line faves in the first two legs.

Race 7: I’ll just try to survive this leg by using the three logical runners on the inside. Mark Casse has two live-looking runners in #1 D SQUARED and #3 COROT. The former shows nice works for his return at a meeting the trainer often targets. The latter debuted going long on synthetic and will likely benefit from the cutback and is also working well. I won’t be a hero by fully opposing the ML favorite, #2 ALMITHMAAR. He’s a major threat if he can do a better job rationing his speed. Daily Racing Form's Byron King pointed out in his analysis that he didn’t work well in company March 22, which gives pause, but he’s too logical to leave out.

:: KEENELAND CLOCKER REPORT: Get workout grades and comments for the spring meet

Race 8: I’ll try to beat the ML faves here. #1 WHEATFIELD might get a great setup and has been racing against better. She goes out for the first time for Nick Zito, who has had a rough year, but what better place to turn it around than Keeneland? #3 DREAMIN has been working well up at Turfway, presumably with a race at this meet as a target. #7 ASTROLLINTHEPARK has a right to improve now that she’s finally putting two races together in a form cycle for the first time in a while.

Race 9: I’m keeping it simple with #12 ANALYZE IT. This talented son of Point of Entry has dazzled for Chad Brown in his two racecourse appearances and appears to have a blend of speed and stamina that will make him tough to down here.

THE BET: Nothing complicated here. I’ll play 1-2-3 with 1-3-7 with 12.

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I’m here for a book signing of Mike Maloney’s new book, Betting With An Edge, that I co-authored. We’ll be signing in the vicinity of the gift shop tomorrow before the races. Or, if you don’t want to brave the snow, you can order a copy right here at Daily Racing Form at https://shop.drf.com/thoroughbred-wagering