Fornatale: How I'll play Gulfstream for Sunday, March 3

It’s the calm after the storm at Gulfstream Park today, with this year’s Fountain of Youth supercard in the books. Still, there are a couple of places to take shots.

Race 3: I’ll start off in race three, a first-level allowance, where I see an exacta I’d like to play. The favorite here, #5 ELEVENSES, looks very tough, getting the Lasix-blinkers makeover for Jimmy Jerkens. While his stats aren’t overly impressive with this double move (just 1 for 14 according to Formulator), it is notable that half his starters have hit the board, suggesting he’s been unlucky in the category. The real reason to like this filly is I believe today she’ll be the best of the speed signed on. I like #3 MISS KATIE BUG to run on for second. She was horrified last out by Fly So High – who came back to win the Davona Dale yesterday – but that race just looks like a toss-out. Two back she was likely against the track in victory, potentially depressing her speed figure. I think the cutback will suit and she’ll end up hitting the board.

THE PLAY: Straight exacta 5-3; come back with a smaller trifecta 5-ALL-3.

Race 4: #3 CAVARDOSSI has the look of a good one for Todd Pletcher and St. Elias Stable. He cost $675,000 and the vibes are good coming out of Palm Meadows. The breeding is excellent with a dam who's thrown seven winners from eight starters and a sire in Speightstown whose charges are typically precocious.

THE PLAYS: Try to get alive in doubles through logical horses in previous race, pressing #5; possible win bet.

Race 7: #1 OROSCOPO set the pace last time after hitting the gate. Could go farther this time with a favorable inside draw and a clean getaway. If any of these will run him down it might be #7 BE GONE DADDY. He closed well into a slow pace at first asking and should run better here for the underrated George Weaver. I’ll throw in a saver with #4 MOMINOU, who is working well on turf at Palm Meadows according to DRF clockers.

THE PLAYS: #1 to win with an exacta box 1-7. Smaller exacta 4 with 1-7.