Fornatale: How I'll play Gulfstream for Monday, Feb. 19

On this holiday Monday card at Gulfstream Park, I’ll take a shot in the late double, starting with the Grade 3 Royal Delta and paying off in the nightcap, a restricted claimer on the grass.

Race 11: Here are words I may live to regret: I’m going to try to beat Chad Brown. I thought #4 MARTINI GLASS had a bit of a trip last time, shuffling back from a good position and staying on again late. She’s shown good late kick before and ought to be a square price. I’ll also give #8 CURLIN’S APPROVAL one more shot with Zayas back in the irons. The favorable outside draw should give him some tactical options aboard the Curlin mare. The hope is that Brown’s charge, Lewis Bay, will have the starch taken out of her by Tapa Tapa Tapa on the front end.

Race 12: Here I’ll stand with two runners, starting with #2 CAUGHT for George Weaver. There appears to be plenty of early pace signed on here, which should set up a late run from him after a good inside trip under Jose Ortiz. He may have needed his last race and Weaver’s charges often improve second time off long layoffs. The best closer of all might be #6 DENEB. His last race was better than it looks – he was trying to close into fractions coded blue for speed favoring on TimeformUS. Another measure, the Racing Flow figures (which upload neatly into Formulator), had that race shape as favoring speed as well. He’s got a bit to find in theory, but might just get the perfect setup here.

The bet:

I’m keeping it super simple with a $10 double 4-8 with 2-6 ($40).