Fornatale: How I'll play Belmont for Sunday, April 29
For this Sunday card at Belmont, I’ll take a look at the early pick five.
I’ll just try to get through the first leg using three horses, adding a little weight to the first two. #1 MAR VISTA MIGUEL looks obvious on form and figures and may improve again after showing improved early speed last time and still having enough finish to cruise home in front.
Mike Maker sends out #6 SHIRAZ, another who has run well enough to win this. I’ll include #5 OUTRAGEOUS BET based on the nice closing kick he showed two back, the good recent drills, and the fact that both his wins came at big sandy.
There’s a Zayat stables entry that looks very tough in a weak race. Based on TimeformUS pace figures, they are the two fastest horses in a race without much early lick. I’ll single #1 OPERATOR and #1A MAIMO and go on with life.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies champ #3 CALEDONIA ROAD – one of the winter book Oaks favorites – makes her belated return to the races in race 3. She must be used, but can’t be trusted fully between whatever setback she must have experienced and the fact that she was the beneficiary of a closer-favoring race flow and ran on the best part of the track at Del Mar. I’ll also use the logical #1 CRIMSON FROST, off the big race two back, and I’ll include #5 TOTAL CONTROL, who might be able to control the pace.
In race 4, #2 CATCH A CAB is super obvious. Look back to those turf races and you’ll see that last fall he was running figures on the green that would drown this field. I’ll also use #8 DATUM, who looks bound to improve for Shug McGaughey in his second start after racing greenly on Gulfstream’s “durf” on debut.
There are a few ways to go in race 5, a maiden special weight, but the one I like best is #3 AJNADEEN for Shadwell and Kiaran McLaughlin. I like that he’s four and has two starts and the starts have been pretty good. The race in January was nearly a par Beyer figure for this level and he’s likely improved since then with age and training. Last time he was the best of the speed horses and the mile was maybe a hair too far. The seven furlongs should be perfect.
The two live-looking Chad Brown trainees, #1 CONSENSUS THINKING and #2 MONKEYSEEMONKEYDO will be included because who wants to lose to that guy?
THE BET:
$1 Pick Five 1-5-6/1/1-3-5/2-8/1-2-3 = $54
THE PRESSES:
$1 1-6/1/1-3-5/2-8/1 = $12
$0.50 1-5-6/1/3/2-8/1-2-3 $6
$1 1-6/1/1-5/2-8/1 $8
