Fornatale: How I'll play Belmont Park on Sunday, Oct. 8

With a pair of Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup prep races at Belmont on Sunday, I think I’m justified in turning one of the TVs in my bunker away from the NFL and back where it belongs: on horse racing.

Betting-wise, I’m going to play a Grade 1 double late in the card and let that decide my wagering fate. Let’s start with the seventh race at Belmont, the Frizette for 2-year-old fillies.

I’m going to lean against the likely favorite here. The ones I’ll use are drawn outside. That’s mostly a coincidence, but maybe there’s a little bit more to it. In a race with so much apparent speed signed on but no dominant speed, I like having horses drawn wide, where the jockeys involved can see how the race is unfolding before choosing their tactics, instead of having their hands forced.

My top pick is #6 PURRFECT MISS, who has run well twice. Last time, she looked like a push-button horse, taking over pretty easily and finishing up well. In her previous race, she didn’t break well and made a nice, aggressive move to the lead in the stretch before getting turned away late in a performance that was better than it looks.

I’ll also use #9 CALEDONIA ROAD, who was green on debut and still ran well for a trainer whose charges I expect to improve with racing. She’s shown the ability to pass horses, and that should come in handy.

Finally, I’ll include #10 CRITIQUE, another who has shown the ability to pass, and who should be primed for the stretch-out in distance after two seven-furlong races at the Spa. No, it’s not ideal that those were both off-the-turf races, and she might not be good enough, but I think she’ll be a solid number with bettors flocking to the favorite, #4 SEPARATIONOFPOWERS.

There was a lot of hype around this Chad Brown filly on debut, and she ran to it, dusting a field early in the Saratoga meet, albeit with the benefit of an inside-speed track. Last time, she blew up in the Spinaway at 3-5, with the excuse of a fast early pace. She’s got plenty of talent, and I wouldn’t blame those who want to save with her to get their money back, but I think the value of the race might lie in opposing her.

The eighth race is the Flower Bowl, at 10 furlongs on turf for older fillies and mares, and I’m going to single #1 GRAND JETE.

I believe she can turn the tables on her stablemate Dacita, just based on the trips those two experienced in the Beverly D. last time. Grand Jete had nowhere to go for most of the stretch, finally exploding late when clear. Dacita ran well and got the job done, but Grand Jete had way more than just a half-length of trouble there.

Zhukova returns to our shores for this spot after demolishing the Man o’ War back in May. She’s run OK since, but I think it’s quite possible that the soft surface exaggerated her superiority in her other local start, and I think she’s opposable against Grand Jete.

THE BET

I’ll use the double probable screens to weight the combinations of the three horses I like in the Frizette (#6 PURRFECT MISS, #9 CALEDONIA ROAD, #10 CRITIQUE) with #1 GRAND JETE in the Flower Bowl, with the idea of being alive for the same amount of money to Grand Jete should any of the three win. If it’s not too expensive to save with Separationofpowers, I may come back and play that combination as well, but only if the risk-reward justifies it.