Fornatale: How I'll play Belmont Park on Saturday, Sept. 16

I’m up in Toronto for the Woodbine Mile and the track’s big handicapping contest, but my attention will be divided between the local oval and Belmont Park, especially with this cool multitrack pick five, which starts with Woodbine’s eighth race, the Grade 2 Canadian (I’ll single Quidura in the Canadian; use Noble Thought, Messi, and Hawkbill in the Northern Dancer; and try to get out with World Approval and Lancaster Bomber in the Mile).

I also definitely will be playing the late pick four at Belmont:

Race 7

Grade 1 winner #3 ANNALS OF TIME returns to the races. Historically, it’s not a bad idea to oppose graded-stakes types returning in allowance races as they often need the run. However, this is Chad Brown we’re talking about. He has so many horses and very patient owners, and he really cares about his win percentage. This means he rarely runs horses who are short of fitness. Obviously, this horse won’t be cranked per se, but I’d be very surprised if he doesn’t fire a big enough shot to handle these allowance types. Single. (Plus, if I’m wrong, I can just come right back in the pick three.)

:: Get bonus PPs for Saturday’s Woodbine Mile card

Race 8

Most of my action will run through #2 MEANTIME, whose best work has come around one turn. The fear with him is that there is plenty of speed signed on, so I’ll use #11 SPIETH equally. Even though he won wire-to-wire last time, he has shown the ability to pass horses and is in the patient hands of Irad Ortiz. Just as a bomb, I’ll also include #5 KASSEOPIA. He has been compromised by slow paces in his last two runs and has some finish. In a race where the pace could go crazy, I could see him being the beneficiary of a collapse. He’s a lot more likely for underneath, but I will use on top as well.

Race 9

The Sands Point looks fairly straightforward to me. Most of the play will go through #6 UNI, who I thought might have been best in the Lake Placid (no offense to Proctor’s Ledge). She was wide and far back off dawdling fractions and still showed plenty of finish.

Smaller backups will include #9 DEFIANT HONOR, the only runner with any speed here, and wild-card foreign shipper #8 VUE FANTASTIQUE, a Group 3 winner. We’ve seen horses owned by Marty Schwartz with worse form than this come over and win right away.

:: Get bonus PPs for Saturday’s Fall Festival of Racing at Laurel Park

Race 10

I’ll use four horses to close it out. Both #7 TWENTY FOUR SEVEN and #8 CARIBBEAN were up against it last time in a race where Dot Matrix was allowed to walk on the lead. Both are capable of better. #9 LONE TRADER is an interesting item exiting a wide trip and stretching back out to a mile, a distance at which he’s nearly made this condition in the past. Finally, #12 PERFORMANCE BONUS is a must-use for me, especially after his workmate, the ultra-impressive Voting Control, won so well last weekend. He moved too soon last time in a race that collapsed, (the old Andy Beyer MIHP – move into hot pace – trip angle), adding to the appeal. I could even press him a little.

THE BETS

$5 pick four: 3 with 2-11 with 6 with 7-8-9-12 ($50)
$1 pick four: 3 with 2-11 with 8-9 with 7-8-9-12 ($8)
50-cent pick four: 3 with 5 with 6-8-9 with 7-8-9-12 ($6)
$1 pick four: 3 with 2-11 with 6-8-9 with 12 ($6)