Fornatale: How I'll play Belmont Park on Saturday, Oct. 21

I’m going to keep things simple on this lovely fall Saturday in New York and look to play an early pick three starting in race 3.

Race 3: I’m hoping that despite the TimeformUS pace projector’s prediction that the race will favor those on or near the lead, Royal Inheritance and Cozzy Spring will keep each other honest enough to set things up for #3 QUEZON. This is a filly I’ve always liked, and the blinkers seemed to help last time when she ran very well inside on a day when the rail wasn’t the place to be. I will save with #1 PICCO UNO, who beat the top one the last time they met and is the obvious alternative.

Race 4: I’m going to take an approach I don’t usually consider wise here: leaving out Chad Brown and Bill Mott. #6 FEELING BOSSY intrigues me, coming off what looks like a classic trip angle – having moved early into a hot pace last time. I’ll also use #2 BARREL OF DREAMS, who looks like the best of the speed and might be dangerous on the cutback. #8 TIZELLE is another who made an early move in that Fourstar Crook race that fell apart (I’ll press a little only because I expect her to be shorter than the other two and don’t want to lose too much equity if she wins).

Race 5: I’ll keep it simple and single #3 TWISTED TOM. Despite being a 3-year-old vs. elders, he looks best on form and figures and has thrived since the Belmont Stakes debacle. He figures to get a good trip in behind the speed and has abundant finish.

The bets
$5 pick three: 3 with 2-6-8 with 3 ($15)
$2 pick three: 1 with 2-6-8 with 3 ($6)
$2 pick three: 3 with 8 with 3 ($2)
$1 pick three: 1 with 8 with 3 ($1)
Total: $24