Fornatale: How I'll play Belmont Park on Saturday, May 12
There is a trio of graded stakes to close out the card at Belmont today, so I’ll try to connect them in a pick three.
Race 9: Beauguay
#1 MY IMPRESSION projects a nice trip on the inside under Jose Ortiz and fits class-wise with these. Maybe today she gets her graded win. I’ll also use the two Chad Brown fillies, with preference for the morning-line favorite, #2 INFLEXIBILITY. She’s got a good blend of speed and finish in addition to improving form and speed figures that make her a major threat.
I’ll also use #6 A RAVING BEAUTY. Her European form probably isn’t as great as it looks: Group 1s in Italy shouldn’t be confused with Group 1s in England or Ireland, but we’ve seen Brown take horses from the provinces of France and have them run well in graded stakes here, so you ignore them at your own peril.
I’ll look to press No. 2 in the combos below as she looks like the most likely winner and will probably be the shortest of the three.
Race 10: Peter Pan
The form of the Santa Anita Derby has come back strong, with both Justify and fourth-place finisher Instilled Regard running well in the Derby. #1 CORE BELIEFS was third there and has an improving look for Peter Eurton and Tyler Baze. The other I want is #6 HIGH NORTH for Brad Cox and Florent Geroux. He perked up big time with blinkers last out, has been working well since, and projects a good trip in the second flight. #1 CORE BELIEFS is worth pressing as he’ll be shorter, and I do like him better.
Race 11: Man o’ War
# 7 HI HAPPY has showed good finish in the last two races and the tactical speed to be in a great position when they turn for home. I’ll press him as well because of that possible pace edge. #2 SADLER’S JOY is the class horse. Last time wasn’t great, but he has too many good runs to let him beat me. #6 CALL PROVISION is my preference among the three Chad Browns. Another strong finisher, and he should be a square price.
I’m against #7 ONE GO ALL GO. His recent form might be flattered by circumstances. Two back was on Gulfstream’s “durf,” where speed often carries, and last time I thought there was a favorable rail on Keeneland’s turf course, and he took full advantage.
The pick-three bets ($56):
$2 -- 1-2-6 with 1-6 with 2-6-7 ($24)
$1 -- 2 with 1-6 with 2-6-7 ($6)
$1 -- 1-2-6 with 1 with 2-6-7 ($9)
$1 -- 1-2-6 with 1-6 with 7 ($6)
$2 -- 2 with 1 with 2-6-7 ($6)
$5 -- 2 with 1 with 7 ($5)
