Fornatale: How I'll play Belmont Park on Saturday, June 2

I’m going to keep it very simple today with a trifecta/superfecta play in the Grade 3 Pennine Ridge.

In his new book “Betting with an Edge,” now available in the DRF store, Mike Maloney writes about what he calls a “default super,” describing it thusly: “A default super is any race that narrows to just four contenders. These four almost have to hit the super by default. You can find excellent value with this bet, even if all you’re doing is eliminating a couple of runners and making some minor separation between your four remaining horses.

“There’s a great Warren Buffett quote that applies here: ‘I don’t look to jump over seven-foot bars. I look around for one-foot bars that I can step over.’ This is the handicapping equivalent of that.”

I believe the Pennine Ridge to be such a play, with #4 Analyze It having a big advantage over this group, especially after scratches. I believe he will go to the lead or close to it and motor on from there. He is the fastest horse and is proven on this type of ground.

No disrespect is meant to #3 Catholic Boy, who is one of my favorite horses in training, but his connections are likely not thrilled about two things here: 1) They caught a freak in Analyze It for Catholic Boy’s return to turf, and 2) There is no real reason to think that Catholic Boy will enjoy cut in the ground. Hopefully, they will let Analyze It do his thing and run well in underneath. If they attempt to take the race to Analyze It, or if Catholic Boy doesn’t like the soft, he could even run out here, and I’ll play some combinations with that in mind.

The value horse to run in underneath appears to be #8 Channel Cat. Last time out, he spent time on the unfavorable inside part of the track and had a real issue at the gate. All things considered, he finished up well, and he feels likely to run third or fourth here at a price.

#6 Untamed Domain seemingly ran a lot better than Channel Cat in the American Turf, but I don’t really buy that after weighing everything up. Untamed Domain was doubly flattered. He ran on the favorable inside part of the course and was running late in a race that fell apart. He still must be used underneath in the tris/supers, but he’s not nearly as appealing as Channel Cat at the odds.

THE PLAYS
$5 super 4 with 3-6-8 with 3-6-8 with 3-6-8 ($30)
$2 super 4 with 6 with 3-8 with 3-8 ($4)
$4 super 4 with 3-8 with 6 with 3-8 ($8)
$4 super 4 with 3-8 with 3-8 with 6 ($8)
$2 tri 4 with 6-8 with 6-8 ($4)