Fornatale: How I'll play Aqueduct for Sunday, Nov. 12

It’s been a busy week since Breeders’ Cup – to say the least – but now it’s time to get back to the business of betting. On Sunday’s Aqueduct card, I’m interested in taking a little shot with the double that connects the fourth and fifth races.

Race 4

#10 FILFILA will take all the money off the form to impressive Breeders’ Cup winner Rushing Fall. She stayed on well enough there and looks poised to moved forward in her second career start.

#9 CYRIELLE was close to the pace that day and finished right with Filfila. There’s every chance she’ll continue to improve for the always excellent Graham Motion.

#1A MOJGAN is a little interesting. She did no running in her debut on the dirt, but neither did many of Bill Mott’s other runners in this category who came back to win. With second-time starters going dirt-to-turf in routes he’s 7 for 48 with a $2.41 ROI. She’s worth including.

Race 5

#9 ROCK DOC looks the best of these on form and figures to get a perfect stalk-and-pounce trip from the outside.

I wouldn’t leave out #3 TERRY O GERI. He made a wide, early move in there and still finished close enough to the top one.

THE BET

Use the double probables in the first leg to bet combinations returning approximately the same amount with these six doubles. If that’s too much trouble you could try something like:

$5 DBL 10 with 3-9 ($10)

$5 DBL 10-9 ($5)

$2 DBL 10-9-1A with 3-9 ($12)

$2 DBL 10-9-1A with 9 ($6)

Feel free to scale up. But I do recommend using the probables to shape the play and to have a more exact sense of risk and reward.