Fornatale: How I'll play Aqueduct on Sunday, Dec. 3

I’ll be looking to the all-turf late pick three at Aqueduct today, one of the last times we’ll see one of these for a while. In terms of strategy, I’ll aim to keep things simple.

Race 7: This looks like a spread race to me with several contenders. The most obvious one, #4 WAR CANOE, is coming off a career-best win. I’m not super excited about her simply because, as TimeformUS notes on its preview page, she’s a plodder who will likely need pace help. I’ll include the two runners I think are candidates to control the race up front, #8 OUT OF TROUBLE and #9 TIZ A KITTEN, with preference for the former. The final one I’ll use is #1 FIVE EACH WAY for Graham Motion and Manny Franco. She draws the rail, has solid late kick, and should be a square price.

Race 8: I’m happy to get skinny here with #2 IN THE LEE. She’ll go to post as heavy chalk but deservedly so. She’s got the best numbers, looks to be the best speed, and is tactical enough to sit and finish if someone else gets aggressive early. The last race was better than it looks given the wide trip against better company, including the impressive winner, Rymska.

Race 9: #7 CARIBBEAN is an appealing proposition for Brad Cox. According to DRF’s Formulator, his numbers over the past two years first off the claim on turf are eye popping: 15 for 31 with a $2 ROI of $3.88. He was closing well into fractions coded blue on TFUS last time, adding to his appeal. I’ll save with #2 FUEL THE BERN off the impressive win two back. The water was too deep last time, but he’s back with his friends. He’ll presumably try to drill them with the addition of blinkers.

THE PLAYS:

R7
$1 Pick 3: 1-4-8-9 with 2 with 2-7 ($8)
$0.50 Pick 3: ALL with 2 with 7 ($5)

R8
$10 Double: 2 with 7 ($10)

R9
$20 Win 7
$5 Exacta 2 with 7

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