Fornatale: How I'll play Aqueduct for Saturday, Nov. 18
I’ll be taking a shot in the late double at Aqueduct on Saturday, starting out with one of the last grass stakes we’re likely to see in New York for many months, and paying off in an interesting maiden special weight for statebred juvenile fillies.
Race 8: #5 BLACKTYPE is a cool, tough horse who runs well at Aqueduct and appears in career form after a facile win in the Grade 2 Knickerbocker last time out. His stalk and pounce style seems to fit the race, adding to his appeal. I’ll also use #9 DELTA PRINCE for Jimmy Jerkens. He looked like he’d taken a step forward, both physically and on paper, at Saratoga this summer. He’s done well in the past off similar layoffs and has the speed to either make the lead or sit just off. In either case, he’ll appreciate the absence of Heart to Heart, whose presence last time made him run a little faster internally than he’d have liked.
It’s dangerous (suicidal even?) to leave out Chad Brown in these type of spots, but in a bet like the double where I like other favorites, the right move is to oppose him, strictly from a value standpoint. Those playing pick threes or pick fours will want to consider adding both of Brown’s runners as backups, or perhaps the two listed horses could be played underneath the Brown runners (Night Prowler and A Lot) in exactas.
Race 9: #13 MISS HOT STONES is the obvious place to land as her two figures tower over both the field and the par for the level. She’s got tactical speed and Johnny V keeps the faith. One possibly interesting alternative is #3 KINZIE for Steve Asmussen. Asmussen's second-time starters typically improve, and this miss had an excuse in the debut back in June: she was in tight, took a bump and wasn’t persisted with. The money she took that day ($5.90-to-1 in a 10-horse field) suggests she has talent and/or speed.
THE BET:
$25 double 5-9 with 13 ($50)
$8 double 5-9 with 3 ($16)
Feel free to scale up or down according to your bankroll and enjoy a great day at the Big A.
