Fornatale: How I'd play Saratoga on Thursday, Aug. 6
Thursday's Saratoga card is 10 races deep, highlighted by a pair of stakes at either end of the card, the A. P. Smithwick Memorial, a Grade 1 hurdle, and the Quick Call, a 5 1/2-furlong listed stakes on the grass for 3-year-olds. I'll be playing both of those races and a few of the offerings in between.
Race 1: A. P. Smithwick Memorial
I'm willing to take on the big favorite here with HINTERLAND (#1). If you think – as I do – European turfers are vastly superior to our runners on the whole, wait until you get a look at the European jump horses. This guy ran a creditable third in the Tingle Creek at Sandown last year, the premier pre-Christmas two-mile chase race over there. Granted, that was over chase fences, and this is hurdles, a different game. But he was a good enough hurdler back in the day (thanks, Formulator lifetime PPs), and these connections can be trusted to pick out good ones. This is the owner-trainer team that campaigned the champion Good Night Shirt. Also, note he's getting a whopping 16 pounds from the favored Demonstrative. I'll be betting Hinterland across the board.
The next four races are lower-level claimers. Nothing against them, but for me, this will be a good time to head over to the paddock bar and do some socializing before betting resumes in race 6.
Race 6
This is an NX3 optional claimer going 1 3/8 miles on the grass. I'm going to play a chalky exacta box using MONTCLAIR (#2) and MESSI (#4) – obviously this will need to be hit a few times. Montclair looked a certain winner last time in the Cape Henolopen before just missing out to Holiday Star. I don't believe that loss indicates any type of character flaw. He ran hard through the wire, but the winner had plenty left to hold him off after contesting a comically slow pace. Montclair owns some solid overseas form and I believe he'll continue to improve racing under the care of Chrisophe Clement. Messi also is obvious off his rough-trip debut win on our shores. He broke poorly and was wide in a race with little pace and still got the job done for Graham Motion and John Velazquez. In addition to the exacta, I'll start a double with those two.
Race 7
This is a maiden claimer for 3-year-old fillies going 1 1/16 miles on the turf. I'll hopefully be alive in small doubles to THEBEATOFTHESTEET (#2) and FINE INSTINCTS (#1). The former hasn't been seen since her debut here last summer in a good field that was bested by Lady Eli. She's dropping to win. The former looks the fastest horse in the race and goes out for the all-world connections of Todd Pletcher and J.J. Castellano. A couple of prices to consider for smaller amounts are WRITTEN IN STARS (#9) for a barn off to a great start to the meet and STORMY ALEXIS (#10), whose breeding suggests today's stetch out will agree with her.
Race 9: Quick Call
My final play of the day will be another double, starting in the Quick Call. I have a good note in Formulator on BEANTOWN SAINT (#2): "Natural gate speed, always in hand, did this on his own, did not let others pass on the gallop out." Add to that his possible pace advantage here, and I'm in. I'll bet win-place and include in doubles, saving only with CYCLOGENISIS (#7), who I also have some good notes on and whose race at Royal Ascot is easily forgiven. It's great that John Velazquez sticks around, and he's won on the Saratoga weeds.
Race 10
This is a maiden-30 going 1 1/8 miles on the main track. I'll hopefully be alive in doubles to GURSKY (#4). I'm hoping the crowd will see him losing ground in the stretch at shorter distances and assume that means he doesn't want to go long because I think the opposite may be true – the added ground could help him if he can go more slowly early. His race three back buries these, and he's third off the bench once again today.
Godspeed to all equines, jockeys, and handicappers.