Fornatale: How I'd play Saratoga for Friday, Aug. 28

Let's take a look at the pick four.

Race 8

I'm intrigued by the grass pedigree of IRISH FILIBUSTER (#2). Trainer Mike Maker excels with firsters sprinting on turf (13 for 52, $2.48 ROI). A.

STUBBS (#5) cost a pretty penny back in 2013. Graham Motion is six for 36 with a $2.88 ROI over the last five years with firsters at Saratoga. A.

LEAVEMEATTHEGATE (#6) ran well in his debut despite being wide. The winner of that race, Too Discreet, went on to win the Schenectady. Irad Ortiz departs to ride Go Go Lucky, but this horse is usable. B

STORM PROPHET (#7) has a live look based on the recent bullet work and white-hot jockey-trainer combo (Mike Hushion and Jose Ortiz have won 30% together in a 104 runner sample with a plus ROI). B.

GO GO LUCKY (#10) attracts Irad Ortiz away from Leavemeatthegate and adds Lasix for the amazing Cristophe Clement. The pedigree hardly screams turf, but if you can't trust Clement - four of eight with a $3.16 ROI in turf sprints at this meet - than who can you trust? A.

HEATED VERDICT (#11) is the other who exits the Too Discreet race. Normal second-out improvement would make him a threat if he draws in. A.

:: See Peter Fornatale’s pick four play in DRF TicketMaker and bet it with DRF Bets

Race 9

THE TEA CUPS (#2) comes into this race on a solid figure pattern and maybe found the distance last time a bit too much. Her trainer is having a spectacular meet and has his go-to guy in the irons. B.

SELENITE (#4) has some talent but might she find this distance too short? That said, she is a stakes winner at a mile and has run well enough off the bench in the past. It's also interesting that Irad Ortiz shows up here instead of for Chad Brown on Swear By It. C.

OLD HARBOR (#5) could make Discreet Marq earn this win if she sets out for the lead. But she's also rated in the past and run well so that's a possibility as well. I'll use. C.

SWEAR BY IT (#7) is a little interesting, despite the departure of Irad Ortiz to Selenite. She is too slow on figures but note that the last two were earned closing into slow paces. C.

Millionaire DISCREET MARQ (#9) was on the lead setting soft fractions in her last two. But she is an easy A when you consider the company she's been keeping, the figures she's been earning, and the trip she's likely to get here.

INVADING HUMOR (#10) ran great two-back in the Mount Vernon but she did get a perfect trip. She is co-highweight with Discreet Marq despite that rival beating her the one time they raced. Still, she's three of four at Saratoga and could threaten with the right trip. C.

Race 10

GOOD LUCK GUS (#1) moved early into a pace that collapsed in the New York Derby last time (the horses who were 1-2-3 early were nowhere late). Colt has been well managed throughout his career ($363,096 in nine starts), and is a valid threat here. A.

BULLHEADED BOY (#3) goes out for Todd Pletcher. Son of a Whitney winner may find the nine furlongs to his liking but he's been better on the green - though it's possible that's due to maturation, not merely the surface. He's well spotted and I'm going to use. A.

BATTLE OF EVERMORE (#5) got a great setup two back in the New York Derby and then flopped as the chalk on the Saratoga turf. I'll give the Zeppelin/Tolkien hunch play one more shot. C.

FORCE (#7) was carried a zillion wide going into the first turn of the New York Derby, but I still think he may have benefitted from the way the race was run (see note on #1). It's tough to have confidence in this one as the highweight but he might be the most talented runner in the field. B.

Race 11

HUSHHUSHMUSHMUSH (#3) is a nibbler extraordinaire, with eleven seconds and thirds in his 18 starts. That said, he's run basically run the Beyer par for this level nine times so he has been a bit snakebit. You're supposed to bet against these types but he's still at least a C.

WHIPPO (#4) is worth another look in his second lifetime start on the drop for Tom Bush. C.

TEN TWENTY (#5) is obvious off the famous Andy Beyer trip angle - he moved too early into a fast pace last time. His figure, 64, wasn't far off what it will take to win this and he's likely capable of better. A.

ELUSIVE TALMO (#7) is slow on figures but he's dropping and could have a pace advantage. He needs to show he can go this far. B.

PRIEST N THE RABBI (#11) ran better than it looked last time when he attended a pace that collapsed and still stayed on OK. He was very wide in there (ran 55 feet farther than the winner according to Trakus. He is eligible to improve off that race on the cutback today. A.

SOUL APPROVAL (#12) adds blinkers and Lasix for Fair Hill-based Ricky Hendriks. Stranger is worth a flier. C.

If your budget is a bit larger, I'd consider playing that A-line ticket a bit harder. If you're looking to save money, you probably have to get off the fence more than me regarding Discreet Marq. One option is to make her a stone-cold single where the investment shrinks to $50. Or, you go the other way and try to make some real money by leaving her out and taking a $44 flyer. The beauty of Ticketmaker is that it allows you to use the above as a baseline and fiddle as you please, according to your own opinion and budget. Go get 'em!