Fornatale: How I'd play Saratoga on Friday, Aug. 21
Days with lousy weather forecasts are very tricky to prepare for, especially for an avowed fan of grass racing such as myself. At the moment, it appears that rain might be starting Thursday evening and could return Friday. I'm going to simplify my life by avoiding Friday's grass races all together. If they end up staying on, perhaps I'll take a look on the fly.
Race 3
I'll plan to arrive at the races fashionably late – remember Sunset Fridays? – in time to dive into this second-level allowance for older fillies and mares going nine panels on dirt. I'm going to go with a contest-type of horse here in ANNUITY (3). No, she doesn't appear fast enough, but I believe she's bred for both this distance and a wet surface (by Flatter out of a Seeking the Gold mare), and she appears to have a tactical edge. The other speed goes out for the same barn, so it's hard to envision the two dueling early. I will definitely back this one up with a place bet.
:: DRF Bets Exotic Summer: Take out the takeout on Friday's pick five at Saratoga
Race 4
This statebred 3 year-old filly maiden special weight race originally slated for turf might end up being a pass race, but it's worth noting that LADY IN SHADES (#4) will be looking very tough if this race comes off the grass. The lone main-track-only entrant goes out for a dangerous jockey-trainer combo (Klesaris-Arroyo) and should be closer this time around after racing against a pronounced speed bias last time. She could be the type of horse to bet to win a round of drinks at the paddock bar, and if it goes wrong, well, that was an expensive round of drinks.
Race 6
Another maiden race, this one nine furlongs on dirt for 3-year-old fillies. CARRUMBA (#7) looks super strong. She also raced against the speed bias July 26, is bred to handle the stretch-out, and should improve as she continues to race. The issue will be price. I'll tie her up in an exacta, weighted with her on top, with SMART ALEX (#3). The latter might be alone early, should handle the added ground, and a wet track will be no problem for either filly. Smart Alex might be worthy of a little win bet as well if she's north of 6-1.
Race 8
The favorites are logical in this spot, but what about GEAUX METS (#7)? Not only is he the name hunch play of the day, but he has run multiple races fast enough to be a big factor here. He won the last time he was in for $40,000, though that was a weaker spot. His trainer, Jeremiah Englehart, has good numbers off long layoffs. According to DRF Formulator, over the past five years, he's 13 for 56 with a $2.69 ROI on dirt following more than 180 days off. If you filter just the claiming races and include all surfaces, that becomes 7 for 28 with a $3.43 ROI. I'm busting out my DeGrom T-shirt and backing this one across the board.
Race 10
Maidens again in the nightcap, a 6 1/2-furlong dirt race for 3-year olds. I'll need to see the tote and inspect the runners in the paddock for this one. I'm guessing that FARRAJ (#4) and MARKING (#5) will prove the ones to beat. Both are well bred for live connections and look to be well prepared for their racing debuts.