Forecast for turf sprint: Competitive with a chance of upset

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – There is uncertainty in Friday’s weather forecast for Churchill Downs, and just as much in the past performances of the eighth race, a $53,000, second-level allowance with a $62,500 claiming condition at five furlongs on the grass.

As of midday Wednesday, the National Weather Service was calling for a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms for Louisville on Friday. And determining how the top prospects in an overdrawn race are going to perform also seems like a coin-flip proposition.

Maniacal, the 7-2 morning-line favorite, is speedy and Grade 2-placed, though he has yet to race on grass – surprising for a son of the turf stallion Kitten’s Joy. Vici adds blinkers and has never run at such a short distance. Front Pocket Money has run well in both of his attempts on the Churchill Downs grass but is coming off a 29 3/4-length loss at Keeneland.

Vici figures to be competitive, though winning might be another story. He has been stuck in the second-level allowance condition since the winter of 2016. He has lost six straight times at the condition, although he hit the board four times.

In his last start, he finished third on yielding turf in a 5 1/2-furlong allowance sprint at Keeneland on April 23. He races with blinkers Friday because jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. and trainer Ben Colebrook felt he was running in spurts.

“Shortening up to five furlongs, I felt like the blinkers couldn’t hurt,” Colebrook said.

If the race gets moved to the main track, Vici’s chances seemingly would be diminished, while those of dirt specialist Control Stake would improve.

Key Contenders

Maniacal, by Kitten’s Joy

Last 3 Beyers: 78-93-89

◗ Has a pedigree for turf success, being by a sire whose progeny win at nearly a 15 percent rate the first time on grass and as a full brother to Grade 1-placed grass miler Conquest Panthera.

Vici, by War Front

Last 3 Beyers: 82-83-91

◗ Exits a productive race at Keeneland from which two of four returnees have subsequently won, including Loose On the Town, who repeated in a third-level allowance May 11 at Belmont.

Front Pocket Money, by Uncle Mo

Last 3 Beyers: 4-67-93

◗ He was uncharacteristically dull at Keeneland in his latest, a stakes-quality allowance that was won by Group 1 winner Undrafted.

◗ He drops in class and races for a $62,500 tag on Friday.