Forecast for rain throws Caesars, Indiana Grand stakes up in the air

Horsemen filled the entry box for the $150,000 Indiana Grand and the $150,000 Caesars, one-mile turf stakes highlighting Wednesday’s program. Now the hope is that storm clouds don’t fill the skies over the Shelbyville, Ind., racetrack.

To say that Indiana Grand has been caught in a cycle of wet weather the last several weeks would be saying too little. Turf racing has been abandoned more often than not during August, and after another off-turf day Monday, local weather forecasters are making Wednesday storms an odds-on choice.

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Both the stakes are open only to 3-year-olds, and the Indiana Grand is further restricted to fillies. It drew 13 but only 12 can start, with Sneak Peek stuck on the also-eligible list, and includes a host of contenders.

Four fillies exit the Regret Stakes, a Grade 3 contested over 1 1/8 miles on June 27 at Churchill Downs – In Good Spirits, who tracked the pace and finished third; Pass the Plate, who rallied from a distant last to finish a close fourth; Dominga, who ran fifth; and Hendy Woods, who finished seventh and posted the fastest final furlong in the Regret.

Pass the Plate probably ran the best race among that quartet, but her struggle to keep a straight course in the homestretch and lack of positional pace are somewhat troubling. Pass the Plate, taken straight to the rail to race from last of 13 in the Regret, ran from the half-mile pole to the quarter-mile pole in 22.79 seconds, easily the fastest fraction in that section of the race, to reach contention in upper stretch. But jockey Julien Leparoux had to focus as much on keeping Pass the Plate from lugging in as on getting her to finish, as Pass the Plate’s run faltered slightly in the final furlong. The cut back from nine furlongs to eight might help this filly, but she will need pace help and plenty of racing luck.

Eddie Perez rides Pass the Plate on Wednesday.

In Good Spirits can’t finish with the fastest closers in the Indiana Grand, but her rateable speed is an asset she deployed to good effect both in the Regret and, to a somewhat lesser extent, in a fourth-place finish May 23 in the one-mile Tepin at Churchill. Dominga is an exposed filly with a puncher’s chance, while Hendy Woods has room to improve Wednesday in her second race after a layoff, but might not be quite good enough.

The pick here is Outburst, who finished 11th in the Tepin following two strong performances earlier this year at Tampa Bay Downs. Outburst, an English-bred French import trained by Eddie Kenneally, didn’t ever switch off in the Tepin, going from a pace-pressing second in upper stretch to an also-ran.

“She was a little bit too aggressive in the Tepin and didn’t finish as well because of that,” Kenneally said.

Kenneally sent Outburst to Keeneland after the Tepin, and the filly has posted six workouts there preparing for this start.

“I really think she’ll run better,” Kenneally said. “She’s training really well.”

Outburst breaks sharply, especially for a European import, and figures to be near the front end in the Indiana Grand.

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Caesars Stakes

In the Caesars, which immediately follows the Indiana Grand as race 8, the front end looks like a crowded place: Seven of the 12 entrants have done their best work leading or forcing the pace, and the tempo of the Caesars should be strong.

Fancy Liquor, who merits favoritism here, will have to work out a trip under Deshawn Parker from post 2. Third, beaten a neck and nose, last out in the Transylvania Stakes at Keeneland, Fancy Liquor is no run-off speed horse, but he’s been on or near the lead in all four of his starts. Fancy Liquor takes a half-step down in class Wednesday, but he and all the other front-running types could be vulnerable to a late run.

Andesite looks like the horse that could land the right trip, but he’ll need to show more than he did las month at Keeneland in his first race as a 3-year-old. Beaten a head last fall in the Grade 3 Pilgrim by subsequent Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner Structor, Andesite faced older horses July 8 in a first-level allowance race and finished an even fourth.

“I think so,” trainer Brad Cox said, asked if Andesite was set to improve. “He’s been training well.”

Cox has a second starter, Kinenos, whose chances can’t be dismissed, either.

Mike Maker trains Fancy Liquor and also entered Relentless Dancer, the most likely winner if the relentless Indiana Grand rain forces a move to the main track.