First Saturday in May will be sunny, but long-range Derby forecast hard to predict

LEXINGTON, Ky. – The latest weather forecast for the first Saturday in May in Louisville calls for highs in the upper 70s and abundant sunshine. In any other year, such a prediction would send giddy ripples throughout the city of Louisville, reverberating especially strongly in the management suites beneath the two green-and-white spires at 700 Central Avenue, the address of Churchill Downs.

But this is not any other year.

For the first time since 1945, there will be no Kentucky Derby this year on the first Saturday of May, owing to the disruption caused by the worldwide spread of the COVID-19 virus. Churchill Downs will be empty on Saturday, and the only race taking place under the twin spires will be a computer simulation of a matchup of all 13 Triple Crown winners, at the Derby distance of 1 ¼ miles, to be televised during a live broadcast on NBC that will run in the slot traditionally reserved for the real thing.

In the grand scheme of things, the absence of the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May means little to a nation struggling with far more important problems. And even in the sporting world, the loss of the Derby from its traditional place on the calendar should not elicit cries of pity – no major U.S. sport has held a single game or match since mid-March, when the cancellation of the NBA season led to a cascade of similar announcements from sporting leagues across the country. The NCAA’s behemoth college basketball tournament was the earliest casualty. Baseball’s opening day came and went without a single game played. The NHL and the NBA playoffs, normally a mainstay of spring coverage, have been “postponed,” but it’s likely no champion gets crowned in either league this year. A slew of major golf tournaments, including the Masters, have been postponed or canceled outright.

But for racing as a whole, the Kentucky Derby is the sport’s lodestone, a draw unlike any other (with the exception of a Triple Crown try in the Belmont Stakes). Every year, the Derby generates a television rating exceeding that of most major sports events; last year, the Derby broadcast peaked at 18 million viewers, just shy of the viewership for the win by Tiger Woods in the Masters tournament the month earlier. Across the U.S., the Derby is a cause for celebration, a rite of spring, an excuse for pot-luck parties and betting pools drawn up on poster boards.

For many of those viewers, the Derby is the only race they watch each year. Whether they tune in for the race or for the fashion or to rubberneck celebrities is immaterial. It’s racing’s one sure-fire shot to put a strong foot forward and to demonstrate that the sport is still alive and kicking, still relevant in a rapidly evolving market saturated with entertainment options. Without the Derby, racing seems grimmer, a betting sport played with animals in a society that increasingly finds animal-use industries to be problematic, to say the least.

So Churchill is trying to keep the buzz alive, if muted. The three-hour broadcast on Saturday will feature presentations on how to make Derby drinks and “Derby-inspired” recipes. Think bourbon for both. There will be an online fashion contest, with viewers encouraged to send in pictures of their ensembles and hats through the usual low-rent social media accounts. If you are willing to take a stab at the Virtual Triple Crown Derby, and have confidence that a few insiders haven’t already seen the result, there are a few online bookmakers hanging up odds; Secretariat is the favorite.

And yet, the virtual Kentucky Derby will not be the only derby televised on Saturday. Following the special no-Derby broadcast on NBC on Saturday afternoon, the Arkansas Derby, a major stepping-stone to the Kentucky Derby, will be shown live on NBC’s sister network, NBCSN, not just once, but twice. Due to an overflow field, the race has been split into two divisions.

While betting on the two Arkansas Derbies will be strong due to the complete absence of any other televised sporting events, it still won’t approach the money bet on the Derby. And that’s because no single race on the racing calendar can compare to it (again, except in the case of a Triple Crown attempt in the Belmont). Last year, the Derby set a record for any North American race with nearly $160 million in betting, and betting on the full Derby card also set a record at $223.7 million. No other race or race card comes even close.

For Churchill Downs Inc., the parent company of the track, the loss of the Derby from its May slot will create an enormous hole in the company’s second-quarter earnings. Last year, the Derby and its related events helped to contribute to $155 million in net revenue for the track in the second quarter, according to the company’s financial statements (Churchill does not break out its earnings for the Derby or Derby week). Only a quarter of that figure was related to betting; the rest came from “racing-related activities,” which includes ticketing and food and beverage, from the often well-lined pockets of 150,000 people on Derby Day and another 100,000 people who show up at the track on Friday to take in the Kentucky Oaks.

Perhaps Churchill Downs Inc. can fill that hole in the third quarter, if the Kentucky Derby is run as planned on Sept. 5, the grandstands and luxury suites packed with half-drunk bucket-listers waving win tickets in their hands. But in this environment, it is hard to predict the future. There are differences of opinions across the punditry landscape as to when it will be safe again for large crowds to gather in one place.

Still, for all the whimpering about a Derby week with no Derby, the clouds are breaking on the horizon. On Wednesday, Churchill Downs received approval from the state to open its backstretch on May 11. Live racing is expected to begin within weeks after the horses start arriving. New York continues to look for a return to live racing at the end of May; the major California tracks are hanging up potential reopening dates to put pressure on the state to give them a thumbs-up. In Canada, Woodbine is preparing for an early June opening. Ruidoso Downs in New Mexico has already been given the green light for a May 22 opening. Other racing jurisdictions are also imploring their state governments to bring live racing back, if spectator-free for the indefinite future.

And racing continues to go on in Florida, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and at Los Alamitos, the one track in California not ordered shuttered by the government. To the hold-outs have gone the spoils. Although only six racetracks are running live, total handle on Thoroughbred racing – the only gambling game in town, and one that can be played at home in most states through online betting accounts – is down only 25 percent since mid-March, when businesses across the country began to shut down. The six tracks that continue to operate have shown staggering handle gains compared to last year. Tiny Fonner Park in Nebraska, an afterthought to gamblers in any other year, is up 1,000 percent in per-race handle. That is not a typo: 1,000 percent.

So in that sense, racing can consider itself fortunate, at least more fortunate than most sports. In the year of COVID, racing has held its own, even without a Derby on the first Saturday of May.