First card of Del Mar's second half poses multiple handicapping questions
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DEL MAR, Calif. – Horseplayers will deal with plenty of uncertainty on Friday, when the second half of the 32-day Del Mar season begins.
Although the win rate of favorites is trending back toward normal, handicapping ambiguity on Friday may invite bettors to selectively fade the chalk. That would not have been a great move last week, when the chalk won 17 of 35 and lifted the season’s win rate of favorites to 28 percent (40 for 142).
Key races Friday include a turf mile for 2-year-old maiden fillies, race 2; a Cal-bred turf sprint allowance, race 5; a starter allowance dirt sprint with a speed-figure standout, race 7; and a Cal-bred maiden-claiming turf mile, race 8, with a likely longshot poised to outrun her odds.
Each race presents a question. Is the European import ready to fire in the maiden turf mile? Can a horse who is 0 for 4 on turf win the turf sprint anyway? Will favorite Howie’s Law reproduce his 99 Beyer Speed Figure in the starter allowance? Will a subtle class drop produce an upset in the maiden-claiming turf mile?
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Race 2 marks the U.S. debut of Queenofthewild, whose two sprints in Ireland include a runner-up finish June 7. Queenofthewild subsequently was purchased privately and relocated to the California stable of trainer Phil D’Amato. Her first of three local works was July 25.
“I like to have a little bit more time before I run these Euros,” D’Amato acknowledged. “But she had two races over there, which is not usually the norm when you get a 2-year-old. She’s got a little added experience.”
D’Amato’s record with 2-year-old maiden imports in summer at Del Mar commands respect, as he is 5 for 10 the past five seasons. Antonio Fresu rides Queenofthewild, who faces several promising fillies.
First-time starter Ogle is a sibling to Grade 1 winner Stark Contrast, while Let Her Fly could vie for favoritism off a runner-up finish in a maiden turf mile that was open to colts and geldings. Vendetta is by Curlin and produced by Grade 1 winner Avenge.
Race 6 contender Pokerknightatvees enters the turf sprint with the highest speed figures, although they were earned in the spring on dirt. Pokerknightatvees’s four starts on turf produced one third. Pokerknightatvees does benefit from a return to one turn and can win despite footing uncertainty.
Rivals include Cal-bred dirt winner Frank Bullitt, whose 10 turf starts have produced five seconds; first-time turfer The G M; and last-out maiden turf sprint winner Lucky N Smart.
Race 7, a nonwinners-of-two starter allowance, is led by Howie’s Law. His 99 Beyer winning a $50,000 maiden-claiming race towers over the field. Howie’s Law, trained by summer meet leader Doug O’Neill, faces a well-bred comebacker primed to fire.
Wall Street, full brother to Grade 1 winner Patch Adams, was claimed for $50,000 from his last start, a January maiden win at Gulfstream Park. Trainer Vladimir Cerin has taken his time with Wall Street, who earned an 81 Beyer in that start.
“I don’t think he’s Patch Adams, but he might be all right,” Cerin said. Asked if the colt is ready to fire in his first start since January. Cerin responded, “Oh yeah, he’s fit.”
The parimutuel dilemma concerns price. Howie’s Law is 18 points faster than Wall Street (99 to 81). But will Howie’s Law reproduce his maiden romp, and how much will Wall Street improve in the six months since he raced? Wall Street, the second-fastest horse, might be the right bet.
Race 8 outsider Princesses Phoebe split the field in her California debut two weeks ago in a $50,000 maiden-claiming turf mile. It was a useful schooling run by a filly whose fourth-place debut in June at Belterra Park also was better than it looked.
Friday at Del Mar, Princesses Phoebe drops from the open maiden-claiming level to facing Cal-bred maiden claimers, and with a local race under her belt, she is primed to upset. Her rivals include eight-start maidens Danzing Daisy and Humidity.
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